Every public market call,
on the record.

the famous fact here is that an H100 costs more to rent now than it did 3 years ago, even though we have much superior technology. And we have much more compute in the world because as models get smarter, the opportunity cost of compute gets higher.

There's no bidder outside of Saylor right now. There's just not. Long BTC, it could have just got an entry on literally anything else, didn't do it.

ETH market cap is way too low in relation to Bitcoin. But it's like, what does that even mean?... it doesn't make it attractive.

You go out on a podcast, you break and violate an NDA... Marvell freaks out. They pull the deal. You now have lost your main source of revenue.

it's a disaster until further notice because it's just the same... It's not going to come back unless things start fucking candling going up. And the only way things are going to candle go up is if there's something new to do.

Oracle, which I was trying to make a case why this would be an interesting trade is they have, you know, they've invested like a trillion dollars to build out data centers for OpenAI

all of the Elon paydays to come from here are dependent on ridiculous goalposts for SpaceX... every second he spends on Tesla is one second he cannot spend on getting people to Mars

the concentration of upside in a handful of assets will make it easier to generate massive returns. There is less capital looking at crypto exposure than ever before. This all changes with the rapid repricing of Bitcoin this year, which I believe is inevitable.

Bill Ackman has just IPO'd his fund Pershing Square, PS, and it does not look good.

there's a stock Chris Camillo has been talking about who is coming on the stream he's been talking about Coco on stream, and I've never heard of the stock before. The Vita Coconut Company. This is what I drink.

I think the market was trying to figure out why they missed. Let's fucking go. Green, green, green.

April 2026, believe it or not, was the worst month ever in terms of DeFi exploits. $635 million lost over 28 exploits in 30 days is hard to fathom.

USA is bankrupt, hyper debt is out of control. This is why markets will go up for many years. Billions who own no stocks will become much poorer. USD is worthless.

Oh dude, GME, are they really gonna buy Game-- uh, eBay? I want to long GME, but I don't know where to long it.

My new favorite stock is IKBR... They just added trading for South Korean stocks, which is really lit.

Qualcomm, which I like because I think it's fun for the OpenAI phones, down 1.5%. I don't really understand the business.

I don't get the thesis at this stage why you would hold it. It just trades like crypto beta. If anyone has a Robinhood thesis, I would love to hear it, but I don't get it.

Palantir earnings are out, earnings per share beat by 18%, revenue beat by 6%. This is probably your software long, huh?

I think the eBay thing makes a lot of sense... eBay is a fucking behemoth and it's pretty dead, like it's a hollow behemoth... but it's a massive marketplace.

some of these all-time high breaks feel like... I did it on NVIDIA. I bid $212... if Nvidia comes back for $216, really if it comes back for $212, we're in there. We are in there, brother.

Micron puts in another one, up 11%, and it is now up 25% since Air Mask came out of a 6-month hiatus to say everyone is retarded. I'm stacking Meta and I am buying Micron.

defense is crushed today. It's trading like there will never be war again. Pete Hegseth would be down a ridiculous amount... I think on Lockheed is what he tried to long. He'd be down a lot.

Ryan Cohen right now is on a fucking god run, brother.

in like 18 months everyone's gonna forget this and everyone's gonna be like, DeFi is rock solid. Like, how do we build on top of this?

South Korean index is up an unbelievable amount... It really has a lot of the speculative gains that Bitcoin and crypto should probably be seeing.

GME, which you know I fucking love right now, down 5.

I'm still on fade war until further notice, but this is not ideal.

You know I hate Tesla.

Bitcoin dominance, which is my bet by the way for this cycle, is if there is a new crypto cycle Bitcoin dominance goes down only.

Pavel Durov did come out and tweet about the TON price, which is unbelievable. I will say unbelievable that, that happened.

Hims earnings on Monday is up 10%, painting a pretty chart, cannot lie.

Monero, when it gets delisted from exchanges and it's like criminal coin and institutions can't touch it, versus the Zcash thesis... Bitwise and other asset managers sell it to boomers. That can't happen with Monero.

Micron SVP Jeremy Werner said reality on the circuit that agentic AI is causing context length to grow 30x a year. That is insane. 30x a year.

I really liked the thesis that he presented... Bitcoin is the collateral for this new like banking product where you are paid the interest rates, the yields that you ought to be paid. Yeah, I like it. I like it. He just has to manage the risk.

we have Cerebris IPO on Thursday... I think it's gonna be hyped on Thursday, man

We're bearish on the US dollar mainly because sort of the top of the historic range in terms of purchasing power, and foreigners are way, way overloaded in dollars

I will pick copper... We are still completely underestimating how short we are

eBay going up would signal theoretically confidence in this takeover at $125

Ford stock surges as Morgan Stanley gets bullish on energy storage business... Ford's new energy business could be a winner for the automaker

peptides, it's a freight train. It's coming for us fast. No one, no one is going to stop this freight train. I said the same exact thing about Ozempic back in the day.

Barclays also piggybacked off Morgan Stanley saying Ford Energy could be an incremental $3 billion revenue, huge opportunity

Best Buy sent out an email to customers claiming that GTA pre-orders begin May 18th to May 21st

Circle is in a really tough spot against Tether... and they really need to win Hyperliquid

we visited Poet's HQ building in Toronto. We found abandoned rooms, and none of the tenants on the same floor recognized Poet. This is some Nick Shirley shit, bro.

And again, Tesla's my least, probably my least favorite stock. At the moment based off of devs launching a second token. All of devs' incentives are to make second token go up higher.

Zcash, not high time frame good, low time frame pretty ugly, is $5.15. I'm still long this with you know, my net worth.

the one I keep seeing everywhere is Uber. Uber, Uber, Uber, Uber. I see everybody talking about Uber... Everyone's filing Uber.

he opened a brand new put on Infosys, and that means he thinks AI eats Indian IT outsourcing. Coding agents replace the offshore dev shop

SEC said to lean toward allowing third-party tokenized stocks without issuer consent. Is that Hyper could go up on that? Wow, what a fucking announcement. That seems insanely big.

Probably think Hyperliquid and Lido are still under-owned. They both have strong business fundamentals while hitting the current regulatory zeitgeist. Target $69 and $2.

the ultimate bull case for ServiceNow is that it's so complicated and intricate and integrated into so many companies that it would cost all of these public companies more money to get away from ServiceNow than it would to just keep them.

MP Materials he owns 10% of... The Pentagon invested $400 million in newly created preferred stock and established a 10-year offtake and price floor agreement.

Roblox on news of big buybacks is up again, another 3%

SpaceX after IPO Musk will be CEO CTO and chairman of the board Tesla... I don't understand who the Tesla bidder is... the only rationale here that makes sense is you... they're going to just roll it up

a beat, fuck it, rip it higher

we need NVIDIA to keep growing. And I love the cheap, it's cheap propaganda because it is cheap. It is cheap.

Nah, we're all buying, bro. We're all buying SpaceX.

Long Hype, Zcash, Micron. You're looking at my wallet, brother.

chat logs from a major LLM hacked publicly on the internet for everyone to see... I do think it would be nuclear

AOC becomes president. She breaks up Google.

Deepseek and/or Chinese AI lab takes the lead. Very realistic. 4 out of 5 is crazy, but very realistic that this happens.

What sector would I never... like what stock sector would be actually worth zero in 10 years... cruise ships. Cruise ships, 100,000%.

Take-Two Interactive, which could be a very interesting trade, is down 3% today. Is anyone in this?

I do not think the street is accurately pricing in their role in agentic commerce.

DeFi is going to have a tough 12 months with all the AI-assisted hacks. But when we get out the other side, it'll be probably incredibly super hardened DeFi

proprietary frontier AI is 10 to 100 times more expensive than the equivalent open source model, self-hosted... I think we will get more of this move to the edge.

they're highly optimized around— they have some like variant of elliptic curves... they're super optimized around like their stack and that's all going to have to be rebuilt.

there's this asset called Hype, which we think is one of the best assets in all asset classes, not just in crypto. We think this could be a stud in equities.

the problem with the local AI thing, I think the best exposure is probably Apple, just like everything's ATH.

It's actually a decent bull case, I'm not gonna lie. This is a decent bull case... you have an entire generation that's now growing up like banking with Robinhood.

Quantinuum is weighing raising the number of shares offered in IPO as well as increasing its share price range by about 10%.

JB estimated $2.8 billion... I fuck with the Brian Armstrong mission, I'm not gonna lie.

Unity actually is cool. Let's see, Unity is really cool... holds 70% of market share in mobile game creation software and seen as the leader in automated interactive software.

Trump bought $50,000, uh, worth of stock in the TKO... shortly before heavily promoting a UFC event at the White House.

Third on the list is Zcash... I have a long open from $5.45 just because I closed the huge position... and then I'm down to add like $6.41.

it's the only other than Bitcoin, the only Trump ticker that is not just handling ATH. He also tweeted the ticker as well.

Berkshire underwrote like $10 billion of the $80 billion at $350, basically all-time high at no discount. That's the most significant action.

I have firsthand account information to tell me that the barnacle fear is real. So yeah, I'm long. Is anyone brave enough to be long oil, the god's nectar, right about now?

I'm really fired up about AMC right now, like genuinely excited. There's this general trend towards IRL maxing, people want to go IRL and do stuff. The movies are such a clean spot.

this is the Near thesis and this is the Railgun thesis, right? Is like, um, make it you tap into privacy and then you tap out of privacy and it can just exist at the protocol level.

oil is back on the menu, ladies and gentlemen. Crude $96.30 a barrel, Brent $96.90. A barrel... Crude's up 3%, Brent is up like 2.5%

with indications that is more than 20x oversubscribed, it will like— it will more than likely get priced up, which is more value on Honeywell's balance sheet. The chart looks good on the weekly. I am long and interested in carving out a longer-term position in HONA.

Cash App just dropped the sickest— dude, have you seen this Cash App product? This thing is unbelievable how cool this is. I fucking love this.

AMC, my favorite stock, is up 7% on news that

is Monero pumping? Oh my God, wow. I just hate this like privacy war stuff.

Titleist Golf. Large, it's with market cap of $5.2 billion, owns the top equipment apparel brands including Titleist and FootJoy... Ticker GOLF. I don't hate that. All the cool kids are into golf.

Whoa, whoa, I like that. 6 Bs, dude. The Kentucky Derby, I think, is going to be hot. I would love to go to a fucking horse race... That is a very interesting one, huh?

by longing oil, you're longing an asset that almost every country on earth is incentivized to see trade lower. And that is how you lose your stack.

DraftKings, that's up 12%. Huge. They came out with an announcement that prediction market volume rose 24% month over month to $1.3 billion. It's crazy. It's a lot, actually.

you see criminals... going in Atom 22 No jumper talking about they can't even commit crimes anymore because the surveillance is so bad. You think to yourself, oh my God, we are going to need private money

short MSTR to zero, baby, straight lick.

Notice that we just spoke nearly an hour and a half about tech stocks without talking about Google. It's, it's the most consensus buy-side long. Everyone's long, right?

Anthropic is powering a lot of Palantir ontology deployments, and I believe that if they kind of came to market... if Dario Amodei really wants to say... you really don't want to be on the wrong side of Goldman Sachs and Anthropic right now.

Yeah, I'm short every telecom stock right now.

XRP is so funny. I'm short ETH and I'm short XRP.

XRP is so funny. I'm short ETH and I'm short XRP.

now I'm, I'm trading futures, uh, equity futures, and pretty much as an easy way when I want to, uh, if I want to, uh, hedge or, or to go net short.

But it's probably going to go to these robotics and all this stuff that we at current net worth and access level cannot buy. Yeah, Andrel, like, this is the stuff I'd be buying. And so it's probably good for— unironically, it's probably good for robo strategy in the long haul.

we talked about a potential trade you could make into this SpaceX IPO, which is short space stocks. We got it from Good Alexander 2 days ago.

Hyperliquid, I actually entered a little bit of a hyper— of a hyperlong. I entered it, uh, I don't know, 61.4 or something like this, just like a little click. Into the weekend because I had this feeling that— I mean, first of all, what they pulled off was absolutely incredible on SpaceX pre-IPO.

Do you want to focus on the dating market with this? This fund, do you think that there's opportunities for new platforms in AI?

2.5 gigs. Yeah, 2.5 gigs. That's a huge campus. Wow. That's really, really good. Chevron, Microsoft, and Engine One have entered into an exclusivity agreement related to a proposed power generation and electricity offtake arrangement. Chevron and Engine One had previously discussed details of their proposed power plant, but not the end user of the electricity. A deal with Microsoft would secure a long-term customer for the plant's output and help finance construction.

The project, which could be up and running before 2030, still requires tax and environmental approvals as well as agreement of commercial, commercial terms. Microsoft is a longtime backer of ChatGPT maker OpenAI, is doubling down on constructing data centers The pause is unpaused. This is fully— we are in unpaused mode. Satya is going all in on AI. Access to reliable baseload power is emerging as a key challenge, one of the Chevron and Engine No.

Well, you know, yeah, and they're, they're trading very reasonably. They're at something like a $240 million run rate as of Q4, market cap of like $366 million. Okay. So yeah, it's priced— seems to be priced in. Yes. Um, uh, Buco says, imagine being a software company with like 250,000 customers, $1 billion of revenue growing 20%, and the market says worth $3.5 billion.

Because of the above, capital markets care more about revenue produced from chips rather than resale value, and chips are only a subset of the total cost of compute— heterogeneous builds, the rack, powered shell, interconnect, cooling. It was interesting when we were talking with CoreWeave about the— that I was really expecting the answer to be chip constraints and he was saying powered shells, powered shells, which is what we've heard from Satya Nadella.

of GLP-1 weight loss drugs got 300 customers in its first month. In its second month, it gained more than 1,000 more. In 2025, MedVie's first year in business, the company generated— or the first full year in business, uh, the company generated $401 million in sales. Mr.

Yeah. So if there's two— if there's two competing platforms where someone could go to work, one's going to pay them every 2 weeks, one's going to pay them every single day. They were more likely to go and stick around or stay or choose the one that's paying them on a daily basis, essentially.

And actually, just to take it to Ghostwriter, this new product, we think the era of the web app is kind of over. You know, if you think about what is a web app in the context of enterprise software, we made these databases, these systems of record in the '80s and '90s. And then, you know, as the web browser came out, we said, okay, we're going to give you some forms and fields in a web browser to manipulate those systems of record. Now we think in the future most people are just going to be talking to AI agents and it's going to be performing those actions on your behalf.

it's only twice as many people as the original challenge.

Yeah.

The rare collaboration underscores the severity of a concern raised by US AI companies that some users, especially in China, are creating imitation versions of their products that could undercut them on price and siphon away customers while posing a national security risk. And so I was trying to square this question of distillation and model commoditization with the news that Anthropic has reached $30 billion in run rate.

No, we've seen a few of those AI leader gatherings in DC where you see Tim Cook and Sundar and Sam Altman and Dario and all the leaders are together. And I was always hoping that at one of those dinners, they would say, okay, Okay, everyone's going to try and say the biggest number, but this time it's going to be how much you're committing to Intel and how much you'll, how much you'll buy from them if they come online with a competitive product.

It's not that unbelievable that they would want to actually make something here.

Defense tech has boomed in terms of venture capital, which is such— there was almost none of it 7 or 8 years ago, and there's so much of it now. I think it could have turned Silicon Valley again back against defense tech if the United States had done something that a lot of people viewed as a war crime, or at least as inhumane.

and you know Brad Gerstner had to come in with the 100.

How are you thinking about the interaction between AI AI and crypto generally. There's been a lot of excitement even from people in AI about crypto and the intersection. But I'm curious if what your overall view is and then if it's positive, some maybe specific examples of where you expect to see it manifest first.

Yeah, I think America for the last few years before the Trump administration was fairly anti-crypto. So many of the founders left, many of the projects left, and many of the liquidity left. The biggest crypto exchanges are not in America today. The biggest blockchains, the biggest stablecoins, they're not not America-based. So I think America misses that liquidity quite a bit. America right now has very forward-looking regulations, and now people flocking back.

What do you think the cybersecurity analogy is for visual reasoning? Like cybersecurity is so equipped for text-based models. Coding agents, the entire cybersecurity threat can sort of be understood as a big string of text, more or less. Where do you think visual reasoning goes in terms of applications?

And They still are rating the stock as a buy, even though it's dropped pretty dramatically as of late. But they say continued stabilization across regions with Germany and Japan improving. Powertrain gap widens as non-hybrids continue to outperform. So they've made so many different hybrid cars, everything from like the 296 to the SF90, of course, and people You know, these cars are very fun to drive, but they haven't been fun to own and they just haven't been holding up, holding up well.

So, he says, imagine I told you that AI was going to create a 40% unemployment rate. Sounds bad, right? Catastrophic even. And I agree, that would be completely unprecedented. We really have never had more than 10% unemployment for any sustained period of time. It would be, it would be complete.

Well, I spend about half of my time in AI and half my time in longevity, right? I've written a few books there. I have a large venture fund investing tech, building companies in the space. And you're right, GLP-1, by the longevity health community, is considered really the very first longevity drug. And part of it is we know that if you are metabolically unhealthy, if you're carrying too much visceral fat, if you're carrying too much fat on your body, that shortens your life.

Centers running very aggressively, probably 24/7 for years. Are we seeing these chips burn out faster or is that a sort of surmountable hurdle?

And Sebastian Malaby, author of The Infinity Machine and former guest of the show, published an op-ed in the New York Times outlining one possible solution to the US-China dynamic. And so we can go through this and, and try and understand Sebastian's points because he makes a— he actually went to China and talked to lab leads there to try and get their of the story and what they might be open to in terms of collaboration.

What in a perfect scenario do you think that the the public funds that invest in private market companies should be basically valued at 1x NAV because we've seen a couple of things go out and they get really highly valued and it feels like some sort of like, okay, the market's not efficient here.

But really what you're looking at is like, oh, there's just a new piece of machinery that's in a of different co-packers. So what's your process for actually understanding whether a company has a great product and will continue to be able to compound on the back of like the quality of the product?

And all, you know, right in front of him was what in hindsight is like a very, very obvious play. Yeah. But, but, but again, you know, look, looking back at like the history of the last time this happened was Long Island Iced Tea

It used to be the case that if you were a fintech company and you wanted to expand internationally, you had to get licensed on a jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction basis. But now stablecoins are this enabling force that allows you to deliver USD banking products to businesses all over the world. So a lot of this funding is going to go towards making Slash this global product and bringing the caliber of product we've given to American entrepreneurs, but to business owners all over the world as well.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. Um, yeah, the incentives flip when you get to this scale, or, or the incentives just get so big you can build a whole team for a specific thing, solve any problem. Uh, and so For the past few years, NVIDIA has sort of looked like SpaceX's launch program. It's incredible technology with very few viable alternatives. And so that creates great margins, as we've seen with SpaceX's launch capacity. And they control something like 90% of the launch market while the products have not degraded.

You know, uh, you look at shipbuilding where China is ahead of the US by, you know, 200 times or something like that. Um, unmanned underwater vehicles, uh, the gap isn't that big. You know, it's a gap that can be easily closed. Uh, we're the ones closing And it's the underwater domain where most of the work happens. It's where all the infrastructure is. It's where all of the communications is. And it's a place where, you know, we have a chance to deliver an asymmetric advantage.

Yeah. How have you been processing the SaaSpocalypse narrative? Uh, Benioff was given some pushback. Uh, other folks were very bullish on it. There's a whole bunch of different data points. I've been just shocked that, uh, We haven't seen revenue declines from really any software company that's been targeted, although, you know, you could talk about the long term, but slowing growth, the growth like these companies are still growing even if they are in like the direct path of the AI companies.

It's not like they're going to another vendor. They're just like, I need to free up money to set on GPUs, set GPUs on fire. Sure. And I'll pay anybody to move me into a Postgres instance in Google Cloud or AWS.

Certainly the GLP-1 boom. One of the trends that's going on here is that the industry has to restock the shelves for new drugs. As drugs go off patent, there's these revenue cliffs. And so Big Pharma is sitting on probably the largest pile of capital they've ever sat on, and they look to acquire a lot of their innovations from small companies. Those are the folks that we support to create new medicines. So there's definitely a huge M&A trend that's happening this year, and it'll continue to happen for the foreseeable future.

Yeah, we'll be announcing things, uh, very soon. Uh, but what I can share on the dates, and this is actually another unique thing we're doing, part of our strategy is we're pursuing this thing we call gas-to-nuclear conversion. So we're actually going to be building half the nuclear plant right away. Okay, so the whole nuclear steam turbine system set up for nuclear steam conditions and quality, and we're going to fire it early with two combustion turbines as a two-on-one combined cycle. So it's kind of a Frankenstein combined cycle.

So Ternus is—

Oracle database as a revenue line within Oracle is growing.

And the building the sandbox piece is the really hard piece. You have to put the right data in there, you have to put the right learning, objective rates, and so forth. That's, that's the piece that we live in. We build the sandboxes for the models.

They got everybody. It's a murderer's row over there. At the same time, Orbital Estate said that it has obtained strategic credit lines totaling $8.4 billion from 12 major financial institutions, including the Bank of China. Are they going to build rockets with this? I mean, I don't— I don't understand why this would be so capital intensive if they're not going to fab the chips and they're not going to launch the rockets.

Everything is converging. Just the templates. And you guys did Lambda, you did a NeoCloud 8 years ago. That was the best time to be investing in a NeoCloud. And then now it just feels like you have the SaaSpocalypse in the public market and then a lot of early-stage companies that are getting investment are still SaaS. So, I'm curious, do you still believe in SaaS?

yeah, and Quen 3.6 rolled out yesterday. Uh, people are like, wow, it's, it's almost as good as Opus 4.5. Yeah, because they, they distill that. Don't ask. Anyways, I'm glad that Krasios is on it, and I'm glad that the labs can, uh, coordinate and work together on this Yes. Yes. More breaking news. Yes. And unfortunate, but we had talked about this previously.

Yeah. Last question for me was, I believe, zooming out, can you get us up to speed on the Brazilian economy broadly? You know, China's been growing very quickly. America is at the risk of like some stagflation in, you know, gas prices are high, uh, there's some economic growth, it's heavy in data centers, uh, and we, we've been tracking the American market. But how are things going in Brazil broadly? Like, what is the economic outlook?

I have so much pride in his building because he's done such a great job. And New York City-based, when we were always like, NBA is the best. So it's been great to see his pride shine. I think all Anyone who does not realize how substantial the analog opportunities are is really missing the plot of what's happening. And so it gets exciting. It's exciting to think that you can invest in both something that could get as big as, you know, Anthropic in an extreme digital world.

Now, I, you know, look, this thing is no joke. We all know that it's big stakes. There's a lot to it. But, you know, I still think whatever that human was to being scrappy to find their friend for the photography, you know, that scrappiness is going to be deployed into something else.

They're incredible. There's no way they're just, you know, that's crazy, farming us out.

So I think our, you know, our initial thought was this was just going to be more shoulder programming. There's been shows done before. So I don't think any of us anticipated it having the impact on the sport that it had. Two teams didn't actually participate. In year one, and they got all sorts of grief from, from their partners, their fans. Um, you know, I've always been— I'm a huge fan of racing, and I think about that 1981 Long Beach Grand Prix, and I think about the impact it had on me.

Yeah. And even if the models are exactly the same, if I'm able to put 10 agents securing my bank account against your 1 agent trying to break into it, I will have 10 times the amount of solutions. And so I should win that battle almost all the time. Uh, and you, you, it, it does, it does seem like we're shifting towards this, uh, the, the incredible value of inference and capacity, which of course makes the whole data center slowdown ban so much more complicated.

Got it. I'm sure the question that everyone is asking you is around how AI is, you know, speeding up the actual deployment of AI models onto other silicon stacks, other chipsets, AMD specifically. How is it going? What is real? How much acceleration are you feeling?