{"version":"market-claims.v1","claims":[{"id":"mcl_8c9e29bcfd90d44fbd","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_8c9e29bcfd90d44fbd","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"An H100 costs more to rent today than three years ago even with better chips, because AI keeps inventing new uses for compute faster than we run out of them.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"dwarkesh-sp","displayName":"Dwarkesh Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c3263695-7","url":"/trace/experts/dwarkesh-sp","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dT24XjECL3k&t=167s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=dT24XjECL3k","timecode":"2:47","startMs":167000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the famous fact here is that an H100 costs more to rent now than it did 3 years ago, even though we have much superior technology. 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I did it on NVIDIA. I bid $212... if Nvidia comes back for $216, really if it comes back for $212, we're in there. 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And I love the cheap, it's cheap propaganda because it is cheap. It is cheap."},"performance":{"entryPrice":219.81,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_e895d18478496b6393","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_e895d18478496b6393","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Trump White House taking equity stakes in AI labs would will the stocks up like Intel; dark-horse bull case.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2791923393?t=6631s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2791923393","timecode":"110:31","startMs":6631000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"White House takes whatever stake they need to guarantee their contracts and guarantee their CapEx and force these stocks to go up. It's probably best case scenario."},"performance":{"entryPrice":208.27,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7fcc928c37b3076571","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7fcc928c37b3076571","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"OpenAI just told investors it runs its whole AI on Nvidia chips while pulling in $2 billion a month, locking in chip demand as it keeps scaling.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7N_-ctMQgI&t=3765s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=i7N_-ctMQgI","timecode":"62:45","startMs":3765000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"NVIDIA remains the foundation of our infrastructure, our training fleet, and the majority of our inference stack. Can you continue to run on NVIDIA GPUs. We are now generating $2 billion in revenue per month"},"performance":{"entryPrice":175.43,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7c198e68604d251972","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7c198e68604d251972","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Every chip company wants a piece of the emerging space compute category, and NVIDIA already has a radiation-tolerant Space Rubin chip and the first H100 running in orbit.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"philipjohnston","displayName":"Philip Johnston","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/19d49751-5","url":"/trace/experts/philipjohnston","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V78F9fA8Viw&t=10582s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=V78F9fA8Viw","timecode":"176:22","startMs":10582000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"we've got an enormous amount of data now from the Star Cloud 1 satellite, which has the first NVIDIA H100 on board. 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The arms race is showing no signs of slowing."},"performance":{"entryPrice":177.2,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7b20565ff7f5102feb","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7b20565ff7f5102feb","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"NVIDIA keeps compounding as frontier compute demand stacks up and scaling laws hold; a model pegging fair value near 22 trillion says the stock has far more room to run.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRYr2fnRl68&t=1403s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=BRYr2fnRl68","timecode":"23:23","startMs":1403000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"and you know Brad Gerstner had to come in with the 100."},"performance":{"entryPrice":181.19,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_61f65e714877d99218","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_61f65e714877d99218","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"As visual reasoning models learn to read engineering drawings and floor plans, the chips and foundation models underneath carry that load, and the firm supplying both sits at the center of the buildout.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"andrewdai","displayName":"Andrew M. 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Where do you think visual reasoning goes in terms of applications?"},"performance":{"entryPrice":183.9,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_92a2cfc0a4af3d61e0","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_92a2cfc0a4af3d61e0","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The 80% margins are a target on NVIDIA's back, every AI lab now has billions of reasons to make rival chips work and break the CUDA lock-in.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvLfOb1oJDk&t=589s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=tvLfOb1oJDk","timecode":"9:49","startMs":589000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"But recently, the biggest cost center for AI labs flipped from researcher time, more or less, to compute capacity. And this creates a much larger economic incentive to figure out a way to drive down the cost of chips used to train AI models."},"performance":{"entryPrice":198.13,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_de4edae967a95f2439","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_de4edae967a95f2439","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"More compute heading to orbit means more orders for the chips that run it, and nearly every space data center being built leans on one supplier whose accelerators are the thing actually getting launched.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i83KOz2w_xg&t=1408s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=i83KOz2w_xg","timecode":"23:28","startMs":1408000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"They got everybody. It's a murderer's row over there. At the same time, Orbital Estate said that it has obtained strategic credit lines totaling $8.4 billion from 12 major financial institutions, including the Bank of China. Are they going to build rockets with this? I mean, I don't— I don't understand why this would be so capital intensive if they're not going to fab the chips and they're not going to launch the rockets."},"performance":{"entryPrice":201.74,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_a8b4f5d3674425e784","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_a8b4f5d3674425e784","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"More agents beats better models, so whoever owns the most inference compute wins, and the demand lands squarely on the company whose chips are the king of token generation.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHuprBZqTf0&t=8047s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=gHuprBZqTf0","timecode":"134:07","startMs":8047000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Yeah. And even if the models are exactly the same, if I'm able to put 10 agents securing my bank account against your 1 agent trying to break into it, I will have 10 times the amount of solutions. And so I should win that battle almost all the time. Uh, and you, you, it, it does, it does seem like we're shifting towards this, uh, the, the incredible value of inference and capacity, which of course makes the whole data center slowdown ban so much more complicated."},"performance":{"entryPrice":217.2,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7145a7ef937e259cc5","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7145a7ef937e259cc5","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The chip maker first in the hyperscaler spending chain keeps capturing a bigger slice of a $725B capex year, while the cloud names carry the depreciation and the conversion doubt.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=io49HEZheTQ&t=377s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=io49HEZheTQ","timecode":"6:17","startMs":377000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"And but financial performance has actually been strong even in sort of legacy areas such as search. Google Search is growing, e-commerce sales. Amazon core business is growing. Enterprise software seats Microsoft 365. We're going to have more news on all of that. And"},"performance":{"entryPrice":208.08,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_422b0c27590fca3cb3","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_422b0c27590fca3cb3","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Every app and UI gets generated fresh by an AI model instead of bought as software, and all that token generation runs on one company's chips, pulling spend toward the compute that powers it.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84D3FhfiPSg&t=400s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=84D3FhfiPSg","timecode":"6:40","startMs":400000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"And so we're starting to see the rumblings of this idea of like the neural computer. There was this, people have been talking about this for years since the AI boom began, but the basic idea is like, you would have a computer that basically has no software whatsoever on it. It would just have an LLM or just an AI model, just inference capability or potentially connection to cloud inference that would generate whatever you want, whatever you need on demand, on the fly."},"performance":{"entryPrice":198.81,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_203d406ff90d14c346","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_203d406ff90d14c346","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"A moat that turns out to be optional drains the premium out of the most expensive name in AI: frontier models now train with zero CUDA, and the pricing power that justifies the valuation erodes as buyers gain real alternatives.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"andrewdfeldman","displayName":"Andrew Feldman","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/923c7a66-3","url":"/trace/experts/andrewdfeldman","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zWrLqo7rLQ&t=9193s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=2zWrLqo7rLQ","timecode":"153:13","startMs":9193000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Yeah. And I think trying to share what that means, what an exponential demand means, and that we're still so early and yet the demand for AI compute is overwhelming. I think sharing that was interesting and I think helpful in educating the financial community. The other thing is that there are lots of ways to do this. That the GPU isn't the only way. 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