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Brad Gerstner

unclaimed

@altcap · person

—pending

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trades14published & scoreable

resolved0settled outcomes

avg P&L-per call

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Published claims

Brad Gerstneryoutube/ May 29

person

IGVSoftware multiples slide further as AI agents threaten seat-based revenue, dropping a software basket that still trades richer than the chipmaker powering AI despite far slower growth.

directional thesisSHORTpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

IIGIGVSHORT

Software multiples slide further as AI agents threaten seat-based revenue, dropping a software basket that still trades richer than the chipmaker powering AI despite far slower growth.

$101.61

— pending

SourceJohn Gruber, Kyle Kuzma, Brad Gerstner

“So now they're trading at about 22, 23 times real, SBC included, GAAP earnings. That's about where the market is trading. Yeah. So now just follow me on this. Software is trading— most software names are trading at a higher multiple than NVIDIA. Yeah, right. NVIDIA is trading about 13 times earnings for 70% growth for the thing that is the most essential thing in AI.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span125:36

Brad Gerstneryoutube/ May 29

person

METAMeta is about to turn its giant AI spend into an Amazon-style compute and enterprise business, a hard pivot for a consumer company but one it could pull off given its reach into millions of businesses.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

METALONG

Meta is about to turn its giant AI spend into an Amazon-style compute and enterprise business, a hard pivot for a consumer company but one it could pull off given its reach into millions of businesses.

$632.52

— pending

SourceJohn Gruber, Kyle Kuzma, Brad Gerstner

“the second you start spending $100 billion on CapEx annually, okay, you run into the AWS problem. What's the AWS problem? Now, I have all this compute, but I don't use it every day equally.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span136:31

Brad Gerstneryoutube/ May 29

person

DELLDell's AI server business went from one billion to sixteen billion in a year, up 750%, proof the AI buildout is real and not hype.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

DDEDELLLONG

Dell's AI server business went from one billion to sixteen billion in a year, up 750%, proof the AI buildout is real and not hype.

$421.14

— pending

SourceJohn Gruber, Kyle Kuzma, Brad Gerstner

“They just had AI server revenues up 750% year over year, went from a $1 billion business to a $16 billion business. This stuff is real.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span118:36

Brad Gerstneryoutube/ May 29

person

MUMicron has gone from a couple hundred to a thousand bucks yet still trades at a single-digit multiple, and any 10 to 20% dip is just routine consolidation, not the top.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

MMUMULONG

Micron has gone from a couple hundred to a thousand bucks yet still trades at a single-digit multiple, and any 10 to 20% dip is just routine consolidation, not the top.

$969.85

— pending

SourceJohn Gruber, Kyle Kuzma, Brad Gerstner

“We could have 10 to 20% pullbacks in the semiconductor stock as just like run-of-the-mill consolidation. Yeah. Yeah. Right. Run-of-the-mill consolidation. I mean, Micron has gone from a couple hundred bucks to $1,000.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span119:07

Brad Gerstneryoutube/ May 29

person

NVDAThe most essential company in AI trades at half the multiple of software stocks, its cheapest in a decade, while growth keeps running and cash floods back to investors.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

NVDALONG

The most essential company in AI trades at half the multiple of software stocks, its cheapest in a decade, while growth keeps running and cash floods back to investors.

$212.86

— pending

SourceJohn Gruber, Kyle Kuzma, Brad Gerstner

“NVIDIA is trading about 13 times earnings for 70% growth for the thing that is the most essential thing in AI.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span125:36

Brad Gerstneryoutube/ May 29

person

CRMSalesforce is on the wrong side of AI. Its front-facing tools go head to head with the models instead of feeding them, so it has a harder road than the database players.

directional thesisSHORTpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

CRMSHORT

Salesforce is on the wrong side of AI. Its front-facing tools go head to head with the models instead of feeding them, so it has a harder road than the database players.

$191.02

— pending

SourceJohn Gruber, Kyle Kuzma, Brad Gerstner

“the front-facing solutions that they offer are more competitive with the models than something like Snowflake. Snowflake's the enabler of the models, whereas I think that Salesforce competes a bit more. So it's going to be more challenging.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span124:21

Brad Gerstneryoutube/ May 29

person

SNOWSnowflake is riding the AI wave, not getting killed by it. The more tokens companies burn, the more database queries pile up, and the stock is finally earning an AI multiple.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

SSNSNOWLONG

Snowflake is riding the AI wave, not getting killed by it. The more tokens companies burn, the more database queries pile up, and the stock is finally earning an AI multiple.

$255.37

— pending

SourceJohn Gruber, Kyle Kuzma, Brad Gerstner

“there are certain software companies companies, Databricks, Snowflake, and ClickHouse, all of which we're investors in, which very clear to me they're in the token flow. As you consume more tokens, the amount of your database queries goes up.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span123:51

Brad Gerstneryoutube/ Feb 7

person

SPACEXGerstner stakes that the SpaceX-xAI combination, merging the two biggest TAMs of AI and space, draws overwhelming retail and institutional demand into the IPO. He misspeaks 'against' and is corrected on-air to 'bet with that vision,' counting himself among the buyers.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

SSPSPACEXLONG

Gerstner stakes that the SpaceX-xAI combination, merging the two biggest TAMs of AI and space, draws overwhelming retail and institutional demand into the IPO. He misspeaks 'against' and is corrected on-air to 'bet with that vision,' counting himself among the buyers.

$1,565

— pending

SourceEpstein Files, Is SaaS Dead?, Moltbook Panic, SpaceX xAI Merger, Trump's Fed Pick

“There are tons of retail investors and institutional investors like us who want to bet against that future, right? Then Elon's your guy and the combination of those make perfect sense.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span1:01:46

Brad Gerstneryoutube/ Mar 13

person

OPENAIGerstner frames OpenAI as the sibling long to his Anthropic position, both riding AI momentum into expected 2026 IPOs. The vntl:OPENAI perp lets you take that valuation-momentum view directly without waiting for the listing.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAILONG

Gerstner frames OpenAI as the sibling long to his Anthropic position, both riding AI momentum into expected 2026 IPOs. The vntl:OPENAI perp lets you take that valuation-momentum view directly without waiting for the listing.

$927.85

— pending

SourceIran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare

“love your children equally. They're both incredible companies. Anthropic unquestionably has a lot of financial momentum... and Open AI is seeing a lot of momentum themselves.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span29:06

Brad Gerstneryoutube/ Mar 13

person

ANTHROPICGerstner picks Anthropic at a $380B mark over OpenAI at $840B and says he keeps adding, framing the $6B February revenue month as proof the model is augmenting labor budgets rather than IT budgets. He expects both names to IPO in 2026, which converts the private mark into a tradeable equity.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

AANANTHROPICLONG

Gerstner picks Anthropic at a $380B mark over OpenAI at $840B and says he keeps adding, framing the $6B February revenue month as proof the model is augmenting labor budgets rather than IT budgets. He expects both names to IPO in 2026, which converts the private mark into a tradeable equity.

$648.71

— pending

SourceIran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare

“Anthropic unquestionably has a lot of financial momentum... I bought a lot more since then, Jason. I bought a lot more since then.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span28:44

Brad Gerstneryoutube/ Apr 10

person

OPENAIAgainst the chorus of OpenAI FUD (departures, secondary marks below the last round, the New Yorker rehash), Gerstner makes a present-tense buy call, betting the imminent Spud model and Codex ramp put OpenAI firmly back on the wave.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAILONG

Against the chorus of OpenAI FUD (departures, secondary marks below the last round, the New Yorker rehash), Gerstner makes a present-tense buy call, betting the imminent Spud model and Codex ramp put OpenAI firmly back on the wave.

$852.01

— pending

SourceAnthropic’s $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence

“I'm a buyer of the shares today, notwithstanding all of the vibes that you describe.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span1:00:21

Brad Gerstneryoutube/ Apr 10

person

ANTHROPICGerstner walks through Anthropic adding Databricks-plus-Palantir of revenue in a single month and hitting its $30B exit target by March, then stakes a doubling-to-tripling to $80-100B by year end. The implied path is a much higher valuation than the $380B last round.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

AANANTHROPICLONG

Gerstner walks through Anthropic adding Databricks-plus-Palantir of revenue in a single month and hitting its $30B exit target by March, then stakes a doubling-to-tripling to $80-100B by year end. The implied path is a much higher valuation than the $380B last round.

$850.01

— pending

SourceAnthropic’s $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence

“I would not be shocked if you see Anthropic exiting this year at $80 to $100 billion in revenue.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span48:19

Brad Gerstneryoutube/ May 8

person

NVDABrad frames Nvidia at 19x earnings as not-a-bubble and says 80%+ of his book sits in compute/AI/memory, an explicit staked long. Chamath separately names 'the Nvidias' as the makers of the new thing that still has to be valued up.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

NVDALONG

Brad frames Nvidia at 19x earnings as not-a-bubble and says 80%+ of his book sits in compute/AI/memory, an explicit staked long. Chamath separately names 'the Nvidias' as the makers of the new thing that still has to be valued up.

$215.21

— pending

SourceElon's Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, "FDA for AI" Panic, Trading the AI Boom

“Meta's trading at 17 times fully taxed gap earnings, Nvidia at 19 times, Microsoft at 20 times... This is not the stuff that bubbles are made of... 80% of our exposures or more have been in compute, AI, memory.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span1:01:32

Brad Gerstneryoutube/ May 8

person

MUBrad discloses memory is a quarter of his book and argues the stocks are cheap (5-7x fully-taxed earnings) against the AI-compute buildout, so they are mispriced to the upside. Micron is the cleanest US-listed pure memory play of the names he lists.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

MMUMULONG

Brad discloses memory is a quarter of his book and argues the stocks are cheap (5-7x fully-taxed earnings) against the AI-compute buildout, so they are mispriced to the upside. Micron is the cleanest US-listed pure memory play of the names he lists.

$747.07

— pending

SourceElon's Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, "FDA for AI" Panic, Trading the AI Boom

“the memory stocks that everybody's excited about, we have 25% of our portfolio in. SK Hynix, five times fully taxed gap earnings, Samsung six times, Micron seven times, right? This is not the stuff that bubbles are made of.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span1:01:32

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AISO tracks public statements, not verified portfolio positions. This is not financial advice.