Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg. Weekly conversations about tech, markets, politics. Trades are attributed to the speaker who made the call.
SpaceX is a one-of-one that grows into and past its IPO valuation as revenue compounds
Iran peace MOU with enriched uranium removal sends the market to the moon
As open-weight models commoditize the AI stack, value flows to the cheap-cloud open-source leader, lifting Alibaba.
Bulk uranium removal makes Iran's setback durable, draining the last Middle East war premium from oil.
If China's oil reserves run dry and it buys 3M extra barrels a day on the spot market, crude spikes to $150-200
The larger a company already is, the higher its odds of multiplying again, so own the largest tech mega-caps
Inflation and out-of-control spending push overnight rates north of 5.5-6% under a Warsh Fed
US AI safety limits push enterprises to Chinese open-source models, led by Alibaba's Qwen
MGM is a triple: Osaka casino and a Dubai option are hidden assets the market ignores, with Diller bidding.
Talen Energy doubles by sitting still and could 3x: clean baseload power scarce as AI demand explodes.
Aktis Oncology could be worth $200/share if one radiopharma program hits, with data catalysts in 2027.
Talen faces a big external risk: US regulation could cap power prices or hamper terrestrial compute.
Silver stocks out in 3 years on a 200M oz annual deficit, with solar and space data centers adding demand
Hard assets and commodities win as $140T in US debt and liabilities force currency debasement
Rising electricity prices and blackouts as a post-WWII grid fails just to meet ordinary demand
China's grip on rare earth processing persists; processing not mining is the bottleneck
Google can cut token prices ~80% and break OpenAI/Anthropic's unit economics, owning the AI cost war.
OpenAI's valuation is unsupportable: a trillion in spend on $60B revenue dumped on retail bag holders.
The AI win is in the infrastructure layer, physics engines and chips, not bigger models.
