tape live—manual reviewONevidenceREQUIREDjson/trace.jsontracked horizons1D · 7D · 30D · 90Ddisclaimernot financial advicetape live—manual reviewONevidenceREQUIREDjson/trace.jsontracked horizons1D · 7D · 30D · 90Ddisclaimernot financial advice

OPENAI

OPENAI - equity - source-backed public claims only.

23published claims

17 longbullish claims

6 shortbearish claims

Asset timeline

goodalexanderother/ Jun 10

person

OPENAIOpenAI is the AI winner nobody believes in, because 900 million users plus an ad business everyone is sleeping on is the same setup that minted Amazon.

directional thesisLONGpublishedothernot a verified trade

OOPOPENAILONG

OpenAI is the AI winner nobody believes in, because 900 million users plus an ad business everyone is sleeping on is the same setup that minted Amazon.

$1,273

— pending

SourceLIVE: Stocks DUMPING!! GoodAlex @ 5PM EST! SpaceX IPO on FRIDAY!!!!!!! WHAT IS GOING ON!!!!!!!!!!!! MYTHOS!!!!

“OpenAI has 3 times the number of users as, you know, Amazon. It has 900 million chat DAUs and currently the market narrative and the market consensus is that Sam Altman's an idiot because he has 900 million DAUs and he's losing money on the DAUs.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span112:41

Max Levchinyoutube/ May 13

person

OPENAIThe lab whose coding agent keeps grading itself on passing tests pulls further ahead and its valuation climbs, because code is the one domain where the feedback loop is clean and automatic.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAILONG

The lab whose coding agent keeps grading itself on passing tests pulls further ahead and its valuation climbs, because code is the one domain where the feedback loop is clean and automatic.

$1,180

— pending

SourceTrump-Xi Summit, Inflation Bad, Space Data Centers, Malaysian Fugitive

“Whereas I think you're probably looking at some of this more non-deterministic work saying like, hey, you can play around with it, but maybe you don't have budget.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span88:59

Invest Like the Bestyoutube/ Dec 2

person

OPENAIA billion people use ChatGPT and barely 50 million pay, so the room to turn that into money is almost endless as it shifts from chatbot to a proactive assistant that shops and acts for you.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAILONG

A billion people use ChatGPT and barely 50 million pay, so the room to turn that into money is almost endless as it shifts from chatbot to a proactive assistant that shops and acts for you.

$672.94

— pending

SourceHow a16z Growth Invests

“We may have the dominant brand and OpenAI and ChatGPT has grown faster, than anything in the history of technology. You know, I think they reached the same scale as Google something like 4 times faster. You know, billion people using it and they're only monetizing a tiny piece of that, which I think is a really exciting dynamic. But I don't think that the future of how we interact with AI is going to be a chatbot.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span01:39

Invest Like the Bestyoutube/ Dec 9

person

OPENAIChatGPT's maker is stuck paying others for compute, making it the costliest producer of answers, and that is why it hit a code red on a 1.4 trillion dollar bill.

directional thesisSHORTpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAISHORT

ChatGPT's maker is stuck paying others for compute, making it the costliest producer of answers, and that is why it hit a code red on a 1.4 trillion dollar bill.

$743.77

— pending

SourceGPUs, TPUs, & The Economics of AI Explained | Gavin Baker Interview

“OpenAI's issue that they're trying to solve with Stargate is because they pay a margin to people for compute. Maybe the people who run their compute are not the best at running GPUs. They're a high-cost producer of tokens.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span49:42

Invest Like the Bestyoutube/ Jan 29

person

OPENAIChatGPT holds both what people want and who they are, the dream no ad platform ever had, so it is set to become a massive advertising business as every company eventually becomes an ads company.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAILONG

ChatGPT holds both what people want and who they are, the dream no ad platform ever had, so it is set to become a massive advertising business as every company eventually becomes an ads company.

$749.00

— pending

SourceHe Built The Revenue Engines for Google, Facebook & Square

“As a company, you either die or you live long enough to become an ads company. And so we are seeing now with OpenAI, it's happening.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span43:38

Daniel Sundheimyoutube/ Feb 24

person

OPENAITrying to win at everything at once, hardware, robots, enterprise, consumer, is the hard way, but the personal history these models build with you makes them too sticky to leave, and ads are coming.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAILONG

Trying to win at everything at once, hardware, robots, enterprise, consumer, is the hard way, but the personal history these models build with you makes them too sticky to leave, and ads are coming.

$668.00

— pending

SourceInside Dan Sundheim's Bets on Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX

“when we first invested in OpenAI... we invested originally at the $125 billion round. So I don't think people were entirely sold on LLMs as a business model. But if you want to invest in LLMs as a business model, OpenAI was kind of the, you know, it was the one.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span5:31

Invest Like the Bestyoutube/ Apr 23

person

OPENAIThe company everyone calls cooked actually wins, because its aggressive compute buying lets it serve the flood of demand its rival is too capacity-starved to meet.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAILONG

The company everyone calls cooked actually wins, because its aggressive compute buying lets it serve the flood of demand its rival is too capacity-starved to meet.

$1,180

— pending

SourceThe Supply and Demand of AI Tokens | Dylan Patel Interview

“Dario used to gloat about how OpenAI was being too aggressive on compute and Anthropic was more sensible in their scaling. And now Anthropic is like, fuck, we should have... I wish we had a lot more compute.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span26:40

Invest Like the Bestyoutube/ May 20

person

OPENAIOpenAI and Anthropic blow past $200 billion in revenue this year as AI shifts from all-you-can-eat to pay-by-the-drink and demand only grows.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAILONG

OpenAI and Anthropic blow past $200 billion in revenue this year as AI shifts from all-you-can-eat to pay-by-the-drink and demand only grows.

$1,183

— pending

SourceWatts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker

“AI is just shifting from all-you-can-eat to pay-by-the-drink... people really like to use AI, and particularly now that one person can have 100 agents working.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span38:12

Invest Like the Bestyoutube/ Jun 9

person

OPENAIThe maker of ChatGPT is reaching escape velocity, accelerating in enterprise and coding while billions of eyeballs on the consumer side could turn into paying assistants.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAILONG

The maker of ChatGPT is reaching escape velocity, accelerating in enterprise and coding while billions of eyeballs on the consumer side could turn into paying assistants.

$1,282

— pending

SourceWhy the AI Boom Is Just Getting Started

“what was scary for OpenAI and Anthropic fighting these big companies like Google was they had these huge cash cows and to both of the management teams, credit at OpenAI and Anthropic, they were able to work in these super capital-intensive industries and find ways to raise capital.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span37:23

Dwarkesh Podcastyoutube/ Nov 25

person

OPENAIAI models look genius on tests but flop in the real world, repeating the same bugs, because labs train them to beat benchmarks, so the economic payoff stays way behind the hype for years.

directional thesisSHORTpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAISHORT

AI models look genius on tests but flop in the real world, repeating the same bugs, because labs train them to beat benchmarks, so the economic payoff stays way behind the hype for years.

$618.26

— pending

SourceIlya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research

“They're doing so well, but the economic impact seems to be dramatically behind. And it's almost like, it's, it's very difficult to make sense of how can the model on the one hand do these amazing things.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span1:56

Dwarkesh Podcastyoutube/ Dec 23

person

OPENAIOpenAI's implied valuation sits near 167x revenue on a reasoning-model story; if RL scaling has no real trend, that premium has nowhere to go but down as the o-series hype unwinds.

directional thesisSHORTpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAISHORT

OpenAI's implied valuation sits near 167x revenue on a reasoning-model story; if RL scaling has no real trend, that premium has nowhere to go but down as the o-series hype unwinds.

$744.89

— pending

SourceWhat are we scaling?

“But people are trying to launder the prestige that free-training scaling has, which is almost as predictable as a physical law of the universe, to justify bullish predictions about reinforcement learning from verifiable reward, for which we have no well publicly known trend.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span8:28

jensen huangyoutube/ Apr 15

person

OPENAIBacking OpenAI before its IPO is essential because it is already extraordinary and becomes an incredible company the world needs to exist.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAILONG

Backing OpenAI before its IPO is essential because it is already extraordinary and becomes an incredible company the world needs to exist.

$832.32

— pending

SourceJensen Huang – Will Nvidia’s moat persist?

“I'm not gonna make that same mistake again. And, I'm delighted to invest in OpenAI and, and I'm delighted to, to help them scale. And I believe it's essential to do so.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span40:21

All-In Podcastyoutube/ Jan 24

person

OPENAIConsumers dumping blood panels into ChatGPT for diagnosis: AI becomes the default health front door

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAILONG

Consumers dumping blood panels into ChatGPT for diagnosis: AI becomes the default health front door

$760.25

— pending

SourceDr. Mehmet Oz on Fixing American Healthcare + Fraud | Live from Davos

“What patients are going to use is a is a consumer product, chat GPT, Grock, you know, and so forth.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span16:27

All-In Podcastyoutube/ Feb 28

person

OPENAI10x token demand against 90% cheaper output tokens, with $10B revenue per gigawatt, scales the leading model lab.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAILONG

10x token demand against 90% cheaper output tokens, with $10B revenue per gigawatt, scales the leading model lab.

$658.38

— pending

SourceSoftware Stocks Implode, Claude's Hit List, State of the Union Reactions, Trump's Tariff Pivot

“I think you're going to see a 10x in the demand for tokens, but I also think you're going to see a 90% price reduction in the cost of an output token, probably by the end of this year.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span33:58

Brad Gerstneryoutube/ Mar 13

person

OPENAIGerstner frames OpenAI as the sibling long to his Anthropic position, both riding AI momentum into expected 2026 IPOs. The vntl:OPENAI perp lets you take that valuation-momentum view directly without waiting for the listing.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAILONG

Gerstner frames OpenAI as the sibling long to his Anthropic position, both riding AI momentum into expected 2026 IPOs. The vntl:OPENAI perp lets you take that valuation-momentum view directly without waiting for the listing.

$927.85

— pending

SourceIran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare

“love your children equally. They're both incredible companies. Anthropic unquestionably has a lot of financial momentum... and Open AI is seeing a lot of momentum themselves.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span29:06

All-In Podcastyoutube/ Mar 17

person

OPENAIJason explicitly stakes a fade: OpenAI is at peak, share is bleeding to Google, Grok, Claude and Meta, and the world takes two-thirds of the market. He even names the trade as betting against OpenAI versus the field.

directional thesisSHORTpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAISHORT

Jason explicitly stakes a fade: OpenAI is at peak, share is bleeding to Google, Grok, Claude and Meta, and the world takes two-thirds of the market. He even names the trade as betting against OpenAI versus the field.

$957.04

— pending

SourceTravis Kalanick & Michael Dell Live from Austin, Texas

“I think we're at peak Open AI right now. I said it on the show a couple weeks ago. I think the pair trade is to to bet against every it's Chat GPT versus the world, and I think the world wins two-thirds.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span10:33

All-In Podcastyoutube/ Mar 19

person

OPENAIJensen, whose chips power the entire frontier-model buildout, singles out OpenAI as the category leader headed for enormous scale. The cleanest way to express that named view on-venue is the OpenAI private-valuation perp, which prices the implied company valuation rather than a public equity.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAILONG

Jensen, whose chips power the entire frontier-model buildout, singles out OpenAI as the category leader headed for enormous scale. The cleanest way to express that named view on-venue is the OpenAI private-valuation perp, which prices the implied company valuation rather than a public equity.

$924.88

— pending

SourceJensen Huang: Nvidia's Future, Physical AI, Rise of the Agent, Inference Explosion, AI PR Crisis

“open AI is incredible. They're going to be enormous. Anthropic is incredible. They're going to be enormous. But AI is going to be much, much bigger than that.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span47:31

Brad Gerstneryoutube/ Apr 10

person

OPENAIAgainst the chorus of OpenAI FUD (departures, secondary marks below the last round, the New Yorker rehash), Gerstner makes a present-tense buy call, betting the imminent Spud model and Codex ramp put OpenAI firmly back on the wave.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAILONG

Against the chorus of OpenAI FUD (departures, secondary marks below the last round, the New Yorker rehash), Gerstner makes a present-tense buy call, betting the imminent Spud model and Codex ramp put OpenAI firmly back on the wave.

$852.01

— pending

SourceAnthropic’s $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence

“I'm a buyer of the shares today, notwithstanding all of the vibes that you describe.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span1:00:21

All-In Podcastyoutube/ Apr 17

person

OPENAIChamath stacks OpenAI's consumer business at $3-4T and its enterprise/refocus path at another $2-3T to argue for a $7-9T eventual cap, an absolute-bullish valuation call. The Ventuals vntl:OPENAI perp prices OpenAI's implied valuation directly, so going long expresses exactly that re-rate rather than a relative race against Anthropic.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAILONG

Chamath stacks OpenAI's consumer business at $3-4T and its enterprise/refocus path at another $2-3T to argue for a $7-9T eventual cap, an absolute-bullish valuation call. The Ventuals vntl:OPENAI perp prices OpenAI's implied valuation directly, so going long expresses exactly that re-rate rather than a relative race against Anthropic.

$958.87

— pending

SourceOpenAI's Identity Crisis, Datacenter Wars, Market Up on Iran News, Mamdani's First Tax, Swalwell Out

“If we allocate more resources and just double down and crush consumer, that's probably three or four trillion of enterprise value. And then if we slowly refocus the company... we can probably capture two or three trillion there. And now all of a sudden, you can paint a picture for a $7, 8, 9 trillion market cap in the fullness of time”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span14:03

Chamath Palihapitiyayoutube/ May 1

person

OPENAIIn the week OpenAI missed both user and revenue targets, Chamath stakes the contrarian case that the misses are a power/compute-supply problem, not a demand problem, and OpenAI's valuation is headed to the trillions from its ~$600B secondary mark.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAILONG

In the week OpenAI missed both user and revenue targets, Chamath stakes the contrarian case that the misses are a power/compute-supply problem, not a demand problem, and OpenAI's valuation is headed to the trillions from its ~$600B secondary mark.

$1,034

— pending

SourceOpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze

“I think they're going to be fine. I think this is a multi-trillion dollar company. I think Anthropic is a multi-trillion dollar company.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span8:29

All-In Podcastyoutube/ May 8

person

OPENAISacks flags a real catalyst: GPT-5.5 is re-accelerating OpenAI's growth and Codex is taking coding share. That share-take into accelerating growth is what would mark OpenAI's private valuation higher, which the vntl:OPENAI perp tracks.

directional thesisLONGpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAILONG

Sacks flags a real catalyst: GPT-5.5 is re-accelerating OpenAI's growth and Codex is taking coding share. That share-take into accelerating growth is what would mark OpenAI's private valuation higher, which the vntl:OPENAI perp tracks.

$1,144

— pending

SourceElon's Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, "FDA for AI" Panic, Trading the AI Boom

“We hear very good things about Codex now based on GPT 5.5... Their rate of growth appears to be accelerating now because of 5.5. So, look, there's reason to believe that Open AI can take some share here.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span18:42

All-In Podcastyoutube/ May 29

person

OPENAIOpenAI growing 3x while Anthropic does 10x; share math says it loses ground to the faster compounder

directional thesisSHORTpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAISHORT

OpenAI growing 3x while Anthropic does 10x; share math says it loses ground to the faster compounder

$1,322

— pending

SourceAll-In E275: The Pope's AI Encyclical, Anthropic's "Dr. Frankenstein" Theory, AI Jobs Debate

“if you have one company that's growing at 10x year over year and another company that's growing at 3x year over year, within two years, the first company will have 90% market share.”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span55:11

All-In Podcastyoutube/ Jun 9

person

OPENAIA trillion in spending commitments on sixty billion in revenue, and the plan is to hope retail picks up the bag, that math does not hold.

directional thesisSHORTpublishedyoutubenot a verified trade

OOPOPENAISHORT

A trillion in spending commitments on sixty billion in revenue, and the plan is to hope retail picks up the bag, that math does not hold.

$1,279

— pending

SourceBill Maris: How Google Could Crush AI Competitors, Why Small Funds Win, and AI's Atari Stage

“It's 100% probable. Look, I'll just say it's been said before, a trillion for spend commitments. On $60 billion of revenue, and now you're going to go to the public and hope that retail is going to pick that up?”

evidence attachedpaste author pricesource span16:08

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AISO tracks public statements, not verified portfolio positions. This is not financial advice.