OPENAI directional thesis
OpenAI's implied valuation sits near 167x revenue on a reasoning-model story; if RL scaling has no real trend, that premium has nowhere to go but down as the o-series hype unwinds.
“But people are trying to launder the prestige that free-training scaling has, which is almost as predictable as a physical law of the universe, to justify bullish predictions about reinforcement learning from verifiable reward, for which we have no well publicly known trend.”8:28claim_id
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