{"version":"market-claims.v1","expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"stats":{"sources":13,"marketClaims":50,"explicitCalls":0,"directionalTheses":50,"ambiguousMentions":0,"openClaims":50,"median30dReturn":null,"lastUpdatedLabel":"recently"},"claims":[{"id":"mcl_777ce405d1f3f0ad05","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_777ce405d1f3f0ad05","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Microsoft keeps climbing as it doubles its data-center footprint and signs decade-long power offtakes to feed AI, with the spending pause now firmly over.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"MSFT","name":"MSFT","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7N_-ctMQgI&t=3029s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=i7N_-ctMQgI","timecode":"50:29","startMs":3029000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"2.5 gigs. Yeah, 2.5 gigs. That's a huge campus. Wow. That's really, really good. Chevron, Microsoft, and Engine One have entered into an exclusivity agreement related to a proposed power generation and electricity offtake arrangement. Chevron and Engine One had previously discussed details of their proposed power plant, but not the end user of the electricity. A deal with Microsoft would secure a long-term customer for the plant's output and help finance construction."},"performance":{"entryPrice":369.46,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_dae32cae9e59124bc7","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_dae32cae9e59124bc7","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Energy majors and pipeline names get a new growth engine as AI data centers contract for gas-fired power and the volumes that feed it, on top of an expanding LNG export base.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"XLE","name":"XLE","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7N_-ctMQgI&t=3055s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=i7N_-ctMQgI","timecode":"50:55","startMs":3055000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"The project, which could be up and running before 2030, still requires tax and environmental approvals as well as agreement of commercial, commercial terms. Microsoft is a longtime backer of ChatGPT maker OpenAI, is doubling down on constructing data centers The pause is unpaused. This is fully— we are in unpaused mode. Satya is going all in on AI. Access to reliable baseload power is emerging as a key challenge, one of the Chevron and Engine No."},"performance":{"entryPrice":58.9700012207,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_589549b68582ef6a07","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_589549b68582ef6a07","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Snap's stock keeps sliding as its core ad revenue crawls while rivals compound; one-off cash deals like Perplexity only paper over a platform that can't build its own AI monetization.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SNAP","name":"SNAP","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7N_-ctMQgI&t=1749s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=i7N_-ctMQgI","timecode":"29:09","startMs":1749000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Some of it was stock in Perplexity. Yeah, but there was a huge cash component. Yeah. And unclear if the other companies mentioned Gemini OpenAI or Anthropic would have been able to match that, how aggressive Perplexity was getting. And so it's possible Snap's logic was, hey, we can do this deal with Perplexity, and then it's native in our app. It's easy enough to swap it out at a later date."},"performance":{"entryPrice":4.9000000954,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_9213ff70f33fb9385f","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_9213ff70f33fb9385f","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Just raised $8.5 billion at investment-grade rates against GPU infrastructure, and those H100s are aging like fine wine, not depreciating fast.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRWV","name":"CRWV","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7N_-ctMQgI&t=10978s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=i7N_-ctMQgI","timecode":"182:58","startMs":10978000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"This is our largest transaction at $8.5 billion... And it was done at an investment-grade cost of capital. So this was done at SOFR plus 225 or, you know, approximately 5.9% cost of capital, which is incredibly important to us given the capital-intensive nature of our business."},"performance":{"entryPrice":78.122,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7fcc928c37b3076571","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7fcc928c37b3076571","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"OpenAI just told investors it runs its whole AI on Nvidia chips while pulling in $2 billion a month, locking in chip demand as it keeps scaling.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7N_-ctMQgI&t=3765s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=i7N_-ctMQgI","timecode":"62:45","startMs":3765000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"NVIDIA remains the foundation of our infrastructure, our training fleet, and the majority of our inference stack. Can you continue to run on NVIDIA GPUs. We are now generating $2 billion in revenue per month"},"performance":{"entryPrice":175.43,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_9affa211e71a8ced04","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_9affa211e71a8ced04","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Snap could be worth seven times more, near $26 a share, if it slashes 20% of staff and finally fixes its ad machine with AI like Meta did.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SNAP","name":"SNAP","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7N_-ctMQgI&t=1519s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=i7N_-ctMQgI","timecode":"25:19","startMs":1519000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Snap has the potential to be a great company and a double AI winner through meaningfully improved operating efficiency and monetization. Irenik has outlined 6 steps to 7x Snap share price to $26 per share."},"performance":{"entryPrice":4.9000000954,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_45aeaedd78b1d7e41e","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_45aeaedd78b1d7e41e","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"A crowded, debt-heavy GPU-cloud name that leans on a handful of giant customers re-rates lower when the market stops paying sci-fi multiples for unprofitable AI infrastructure and starts pricing the leverage.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRWV","name":"CRWV","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V78F9fA8Viw&t=5265s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=V78F9fA8Viw","timecode":"87:45","startMs":5265000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Well, you know, yeah, and they're, they're trading very reasonably. They're at something like a $240 million run rate as of Q4, market cap of like $366 million. Okay. So yeah, it's priced— seems to be priced in. Yes. Um, uh, Buco says, imagine being a software company with like 250,000 customers, $1 billion of revenue growing 20%, and the market says worth $3.5 billion."},"performance":{"entryPrice":82.063,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_32e88b735fd61b4acd","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_32e88b735fd61b4acd","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The company that sells the switchgear, power and liquid cooling inside every AI data center rides a build wall where finished shells, not GPUs, are what is scarce.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"VRT","name":"VRT","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V78F9fA8Viw&t=3002s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=V78F9fA8Viw","timecode":"50:02","startMs":3002000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Because of the above, capital markets care more about revenue produced from chips rather than resale value, and chips are only a subset of the total cost of compute— heterogeneous builds, the rack, powered shell, interconnect, cooling. It was interesting when we were talking with CoreWeave about the— that I was really expecting the answer to be chip constraints and he was saying powered shells, powered shells, which is what we've heard from Satya Nadella."},"performance":{"entryPrice":261.2900085449,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_5cfc5d5c614cbdd7b1","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_5cfc5d5c614cbdd7b1","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"A market big enough that a two-person shop banks $400M in year one lifts the only public telehealth proxy in it, as rising subscribers and weight-loss volume keep compounding the run rate.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"HIMS","name":"HIMS","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V78F9fA8Viw&t=2167s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=V78F9fA8Viw","timecode":"36:07","startMs":2167000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"of GLP-1 weight loss drugs got 300 customers in its first month. In its second month, it gained more than 1,000 more. In 2025, MedVie's first year in business, the company generated— or the first full year in business, uh, the company generated $401 million in sales. Mr."},"performance":{"entryPrice":18.903,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_849cc13c15870ead24","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_849cc13c15870ead24","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Owl's shares slide as the manager caps withdrawals on flagship funds that drew redemption requests of 22% and 41%, exposing the liquidity illusion at the core of its non-traded credit machine.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"OWL","name":"OWL","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V78F9fA8Viw&t=3661s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=V78F9fA8Viw","timecode":"61:01","startMs":3661000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Blue Owl capped private credit fund redemptions at 5% after steep request levels. This was the other news. News. Oh, from this morning, I think they got something like, uh, 21, uh, redemption requests outstanding during the first quarter, so they had to cap it at 5%."},"performance":{"entryPrice":8.5699996948,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_08d14617d3e3393601","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_08d14617d3e3393601","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"As AI churns out code nobody actually reads, the watchdog that flags hidden malicious behavior at the device level becomes the new operating system of security.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRWD","name":"CRWD","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V78F9fA8Viw&t=7442s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=V78F9fA8Viw","timecode":"124:02","startMs":7442000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"We kind of see ourselves as the operating system. System of security at CrowdStrike. So being able to see that, you know, the AI agent is writing code and it loads a library and inside that library, you know, use this Axios example, there's a chunk of it that's base64 encoded and it's being, you know, decoded and instantiated."},"performance":{"entryPrice":399.1199951172,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_98aad0d2d0d79ab8f2","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_98aad0d2d0d79ab8f2","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Paychex rides the shift as same-day pay becomes a hiring must-have, bundling on-demand pay into Flex tiers and deepening client lock-in across its W-2 employer base.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"PAYX","name":"PAYX","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrnhYB2uIA8&t=9380s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=wrnhYB2uIA8","timecode":"156:20","startMs":9380000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Yeah. So if there's two— if there's two competing platforms where someone could go to work, one's going to pay them every 2 weeks, one's going to pay them every single day. They were more likely to go and stick around or stay or choose the one that's paying them on a daily basis, essentially."},"performance":{"entryPrice":91.8499984741,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_5e917c85aa18097806","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_5e917c85aa18097806","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The public GLP-1 telehealth name slides as the compounded-semaglutide cash cow gets cut off by regulators, leaving guidance built on extrapolated run-rate numbers exposed.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"HIMS","name":"HIMS","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrnhYB2uIA8&t=500s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=wrnhYB2uIA8","timecode":"8:20","startMs":500000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"it's only twice as many people as the original challenge."},"performance":{"entryPrice":20.057,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_6fbf10d5b7ed6b3c23","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_6fbf10d5b7ed6b3c23","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The nation's sole carrier yard and co-monopoly submarine builder rides a multi-year Navy buildout as Washington scrambles to out-build China at sea.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"HII","name":"HII","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrnhYB2uIA8&t=8782s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=wrnhYB2uIA8","timecode":"146:22","startMs":8782000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Between World War II until now, Tom and Dwight, the amount of ships U.S. has built, China built more than that in the last 12 months, right?"},"performance":{"entryPrice":407.6600036621,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_1a74482a8664843674","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_1a74482a8664843674","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The company running the military's targeting brain becomes permanent infrastructure as the Pentagon races to wire cheap autonomous systems into one AI-run kill chain after the Iran wake-up call.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"PLTR","name":"PLTR","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrnhYB2uIA8&t=2456s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=wrnhYB2uIA8","timecode":"40:56","startMs":2456000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Every technology gets defeated at some point, he said. There's still a worrisome— there's also still a worrisome lack of cheap US counter-drone technology, which has allowed Iranian-backed militias to continue using small drones to menace US military bases in the Middle East. The small number of unmanned surface vessels in the region are still years away from being the autonomous fighting machines their manufacturers have promised. The absence of a broader supply of modern US, cheap US systems in the Iran War has served as a wake-up call."},"performance":{"entryPrice":148.31,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_d9007f0e61378ff80f","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_d9007f0e61378ff80f","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The chip vendor that sits under almost every training run keeps printing as labs pour record dollars into compute, with demand running ahead of supply and an annual chip cadence pulling the spend forward.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrnhYB2uIA8&t=2668s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=wrnhYB2uIA8","timecode":"44:28","startMs":2668000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Both companies are releasing new versions of their AI models at fast— at a faster cadence than ever before, while pouring more resources into the training runs that create them. The arms race is showing no signs of slowing."},"performance":{"entryPrice":177.2,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_f1f9020f53bfc282c6","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_f1f9020f53bfc282c6","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Lilly just got a real oral weight-loss pill approved while copycats sell an oral version with zero human studies and a RICO lawsuit hanging over it.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"LLY","name":"LLY","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrnhYB2uIA8&t=6072s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=wrnhYB2uIA8","timecode":"101:12","startMs":6072000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"The day before this article ran, the day before, Lilly's oral got approved. It was not tirzepatide. In fact, it wasn't even a peptide."},"performance":{"entryPrice":925.29,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_8d66d275ac2f7da459","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_8d66d275ac2f7da459","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"High-multiple workflow software keeps getting marked down as AI agents do the work that used to mean more seats, and the most-exposed incumbent wears the repricing.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NOW","name":"NOW","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MEAhyh6BtQ&t=10413s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=6MEAhyh6BtQ","timecode":"173:33","startMs":10413000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Yeah."},"performance":{"entryPrice":100.5500030518,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_61c6bc2777a07c4bfc","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_61c6bc2777a07c4bfc","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Anthropic's implied valuation keeps climbing as run rate triples to $30B and it locks multi-gigawatt TPU capacity; the distillation scare turns out to be a safety story, not a pricing collapse.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MEAhyh6BtQ&t=3150s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=6MEAhyh6BtQ","timecode":"52:30","startMs":3150000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"The rare collaboration underscores the severity of a concern raised by US AI companies that some users, especially in China, are creating imitation versions of their products that could undercut them on price and siphon away customers while posing a national security risk. And so I was trying to square this question of distillation and model commoditization with the news that Anthropic has reached $30 billion in run rate."},"performance":{"entryPrice":697.95,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_a5d9830d367100d6be","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_a5d9830d367100d6be","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"TSMC keeps raising prices and capex into demand it can't fully meet while Intel still has no committed leading-edge customers, leaving the foundry at the center of AI compounding higher.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"TSM","name":"TSM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MEAhyh6BtQ&t=1431s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=6MEAhyh6BtQ","timecode":"23:51","startMs":1431000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"No, we've seen a few of those AI leader gatherings in DC where you see Tim Cook and Sundar and Sam Altman and Dario and all the leaders are together. And I was always hoping that at one of those dinners, they would say, okay, Okay, everyone's going to try and say the biggest number, but this time it's going to be how much you're committing to Intel and how much you'll, how much you'll buy from them if they come online with a competitive product."},"performance":{"entryPrice":338.66,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_94945643a526920dc6","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_94945643a526920dc6","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Square is pivoting its entire infrastructure for the AI era, going remote with tiny fast teams, the kind of proactive move that separates winners from losers.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"XYZ","name":"XYZ","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MEAhyh6BtQ&t=10512s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=6MEAhyh6BtQ","timecode":"175:12","startMs":10512000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I mean, look at Square, right? Yeah. Jack, came out and just said, no, I'm pivoting the entire infrastructure of this company for an AI era. We think you're going to need to be remote,"},"performance":{"entryPrice":59.9700012207,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_86ba8c8e02f86ea167","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_86ba8c8e02f86ea167","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"In two years a model could just build you a Workday off the bat, and that leaves legacy software companies looking like the mailroom.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"WDAY","name":"WDAY","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MEAhyh6BtQ&t=10467s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=6MEAhyh6BtQ","timecode":"174:27","startMs":10467000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"And what if your model, not today, but in 2 years, can just build you a Workday right off the bat. Yeah. Um, what does that mean for Workday? Does that mean their data is more valuable? Yeah. In on the left-hand side, or no, does that mean they get fully wiped out?"},"performance":{"entryPrice":127.5100021362,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7ec084958a8fc9277f","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7ec084958a8fc9277f","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Meta is quietly one of the biggest AI winners, with sharper ad targeting and more ads delivered already showing up in strong earnings.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"META","name":"META","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MEAhyh6BtQ&t=499s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=6MEAhyh6BtQ","timecode":"8:19","startMs":499000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Meta has been a huge beneficiary and a huge winner of AI. The ads are getting better targeting. They're seeing They're delivering more ads and the quarterly earnings have been strong."},"performance":{"entryPrice":575.049987793,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_f3b8cdf6ee44ea581c","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_f3b8cdf6ee44ea581c","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Intel finally has the customers it always lacked, with Tesla and SpaceX signing on just as everyone admits a chip shortage is coming and TSMC is not building fast enough.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"INTC","name":"INTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MEAhyh6BtQ&t=1459s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=6MEAhyh6BtQ","timecode":"24:19","startMs":1459000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Because the demand side has always been a big problem for Intel, that they have the capability, they have plans to build the 2-nanometer, 3-nanometer plant, like a frontier plant, leading-edge fab. But every other company has been so tied to TSMC."},"performance":{"entryPrice":51.861,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7b20565ff7f5102feb","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7b20565ff7f5102feb","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"NVIDIA keeps compounding as frontier compute demand stacks up and scaling laws hold; a model pegging fair value near 22 trillion says the stock has far more room to run.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRYr2fnRl68&t=1403s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=BRYr2fnRl68","timecode":"23:23","startMs":1403000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"and you know Brad Gerstner had to come in with the 100."},"performance":{"entryPrice":181.19,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_35d0f0e09649e76292","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_35d0f0e09649e76292","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Enterprise security budgets jump as AI tools spawn new attack vectors and vuln-finders flag flaws everywhere, lifting the basket of cyber vendors riding that spend wave.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CIBR","name":"CIBR","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRYr2fnRl68&t=6534s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=BRYr2fnRl68","timecode":"108:54","startMs":6534000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Yeah."},"performance":{"entryPrice":65.6600036621,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_589b1766ab167769e4","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_589b1766ab167769e4","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Paying 6x net asset value for a closed-end fund where shorting costs 400% is something people will remember in the next bear market, that premium can't hold forever.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"VCX","name":"VCX","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRYr2fnRl68&t=2095s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=BRYr2fnRl68","timecode":"34:55","startMs":2095000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"paying for an ad encouraging people to pay 6x net asset value for a closed-end fund where the cost to borrow is 400% is one of the things people will remember during the next bear market."},"performance":{"entryPrice":119.7399978638,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_53143a0529890ae660","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_53143a0529890ae660","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Meta finally shipped a near-frontier AI model after a year of doubt, and the stock jumped almost 8% as the cloud over all that AI spending lifts.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"META","name":"META","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRYr2fnRl68&t=1197s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=BRYr2fnRl68","timecode":"19:57","startMs":1197000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I know the market is thrilled that Meta has released a close to frontier level model. Right. This is a new group. They've been at it for less than a year. The stock is up almost 8% today. And again, you know, so, so much of the pricing pressure, the downward pressure on Meta has just been kind of uncertainty on what all these tens of millions of dollars will actually go towards and, and what will be accomplished."},"performance":{"entryPrice":612.4199829102,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_756107bc77ef56a81b","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_756107bc77ef56a81b","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Lilly's oral weight-loss pill now ships same-day through Amazon's network just as gray-market peptide sellers get squeezed out, pulling a wave of demand straight onto the drugmaker's books.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"LLY","name":"LLY","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfJFeqhfkuI&t=1489s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=DfJFeqhfkuI","timecode":"24:49","startMs":1489000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Yes, it's hard to say. Amazon's actually almost up 5% today. Yeah. And I would, I would expect that to be because of the letter. But people tend to buy a lot of GLP-1 drugs, too."},"performance":{"entryPrice":959.24,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_fbcad91ecc3398be5e","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_fbcad91ecc3398be5e","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"AWS AI is already a 15 billion dollar business and they literally cannot build fast enough, customers want all the chip capacity for a whole year and Amazon has to say no.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"AMZN","name":"AMZN","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfJFeqhfkuI&t=1213s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=DfJFeqhfkuI","timecode":"20:13","startMs":1213000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"AWS's AI revenue run rate is over $15 billion in Q1 of 2026, which is nearly 260 times bigger than AWS was at the same point, and it's ascending rapidly."},"performance":{"entryPrice":232.03,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_4ed0b197279989a270","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_4ed0b197279989a270","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"RACE keeps sliding as the resale halo cracks: hybrids like the 296 and SF90 dump in the used market while only the limited ICE cars hold, forcing a production cut.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"RACE","name":"RACE","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3L6e9iLezlc&t=2195s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=3L6e9iLezlc","timecode":"36:35","startMs":2195000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"And They still are rating the stock as a buy, even though it's dropped pretty dramatically as of late. But they say continued stabilization across regions with Germany and Japan improving. Powertrain gap widens as non-hybrids continue to outperform. So they've made so many different hybrid cars, everything from like the 296 to the SF90, of course, and people You know, these cars are very fun to drive, but they haven't been fun to own and they just haven't been holding up, holding up well."},"performance":{"entryPrice":351.8900146484,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_4e51421b892e8ffb95","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_4e51421b892e8ffb95","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The company selling enterprises an autonomous AI workforce gets paid more the faster jobs get automated, with 22% subscription growth and a Now Assist ramp behind it.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NOW","name":"NOW","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3L6e9iLezlc&t=861s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=3L6e9iLezlc","timecode":"14:21","startMs":861000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"So, he says, imagine I told you that AI was going to create a 40% unemployment rate. Sounds bad, right? Catastrophic even. And I agree, that would be completely unprecedented. We really have never had more than 10% unemployment for any sustained period of time. It would be, it would be complete."},"performance":{"entryPrice":83,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_b24c8c5a7c497e068f","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_b24c8c5a7c497e068f","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The one fab making every advanced AI chip stays oversubscribed as data centers burn out and swap silicon to grow under fixed power, with demand running years ahead of capacity.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"TSM","name":"TSM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BD7kXb50Np8&t=5579s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=BD7kXb50Np8","timecode":"92:59","startMs":5579000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Centers running very aggressively, probably 24/7 for years. Are we seeing these chips burn out faster or is that a sort of surmountable hurdle?"},"performance":{"entryPrice":369.63,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_92adcf4f59652b5ac5","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_92adcf4f59652b5ac5","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Chinese AI keeps shipping frontier models despite the chip ban, and the market re-prices Alibaba as a leading lab rather than a hobbled one boxed in by export controls.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"BABA","name":"BABA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BD7kXb50Np8&t=2910s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=BD7kXb50Np8","timecode":"48:30","startMs":2910000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"And Sebastian Malaby, author of The Infinity Machine and former guest of the show, published an op-ed in the New York Times outlining one possible solution to the US-China dynamic. And so we can go through this and, and try and understand Sebastian's points because he makes a— he actually went to China and talked to lab leads there to try and get their of the story and what they might be open to in terms of collaboration."},"performance":{"entryPrice":127.39,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_99a2d6fe01b642b35d","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_99a2d6fe01b642b35d","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The premium on a listed fund that holds SpaceX, Anthropic and other pre-IPO names collapses toward its asset value as landmark IPOs finally set honest public prices and expose the disconnect.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"DXYZ","name":"DXYZ","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsShiDx44nY&t=7410s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=AsShiDx44nY","timecode":"123:30","startMs":7410000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"What in a perfect scenario do you think that the the public funds that invest in private market companies should be basically valued at 1x NAV because we've seen a couple of things go out and they get really highly valued and it feels like some sort of like, okay, the market's not efficient here."},"performance":{"entryPrice":29.6599998474,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_14e783bf148bd3708e","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_14e783bf148bd3708e","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"A 700% one-day melt-up on a name-change to NewBird AI unwinds as the dilutive convert, late AI entry and meme-stock fade catch up, just like the iced-tea-to-blockchain shell that ended in delisting.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"BIRD","name":"BIRD","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsShiDx44nY&t=868s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=AsShiDx44nY","timecode":"14:28","startMs":868000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"And all, you know, right in front of him was what in hindsight is like a very, very obvious play. Yeah. But, but, but again, you know, look, looking back at like the history of the last time this happened was Long Island Iced Tea"},"performance":{"entryPrice":17.9841003418,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_72e2b0a5f0e4179928","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_72e2b0a5f0e4179928","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Uber shares keep bleeding as robotaxis from Waymo and Tesla scale and a $10B fleet spend turns the asset-light model into a capital-heavy defensive bet.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"UBER","name":"UBER","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsShiDx44nY&t=4085s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=AsShiDx44nY","timecode":"68:05","startMs":4085000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the stock has been trading down as Waymo and Tesla expanded services. It sold off, Uber sold off. And when Waymo raised $16 billion, Uber sold off again... The stock is down 23% in the past 6 months and investors are starting to get concerned about autonomous vehicles."},"performance":{"entryPrice":77.8550033569,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_d479180790359ca122","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_d479180790359ca122","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"People already use Meta's glasses as GoPros and AirPods replacements, so the hardware sells itself even while the AI assistant keeps whiffing.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"META","name":"META","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsShiDx44nY&t=5510s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=AsShiDx44nY","timecode":"91:50","startMs":5510000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Oh yeah, people are using them as GoPros."},"performance":{"entryPrice":672.5900268555,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_08f7821a8067e64cfb","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_08f7821a8067e64cfb","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Apple could quietly win the AI race without torching billions on chips, leaning on OpenAI, Anthropic and Gemini partnerships plus new AI smart glasses.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"AAPL","name":"AAPL","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AsShiDx44nY&t=5592s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=AsShiDx44nY","timecode":"93:12","startMs":5592000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Dan Primack has a take here. He says Apple isn't burning mountains of cash on GPUs or investing billions into Frontier Labs, but it still may win the AI race. Success from the sidelines"},"performance":{"entryPrice":265.3399963379,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_6a6798f634c4a89752","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_6a6798f634c4a89752","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The company that fabs and packages every AI accelerator keeps pricing power even as GPU makers fight a commoditizing car-market price war, because all that volume still funnels through one CoWoS chokepoint.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"TSM","name":"TSM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvLfOb1oJDk&t=755s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=tvLfOb1oJDk","timecode":"12:35","startMs":755000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. Um, yeah, the incentives flip when you get to this scale, or, or the incentives just get so big you can build a whole team for a specific thing, solve any problem. Uh, and so For the past few years, NVIDIA has sort of looked like SpaceX's launch program. It's incredible technology with very few viable alternatives. And so that creates great margins, as we've seen with SpaceX's launch capacity. And they control something like 90% of the launch market while the products have not degraded."},"performance":{"entryPrice":362.68,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_29b3e2cf682a00d166","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_29b3e2cf682a00d166","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"AMD gets re-rated as the credible second source for AI compute: MI400 ramps on a 6GW OpenAI deal while code-portability tools let labs spend billions escaping a single vendor's pricing power.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"AMD","name":"AMD","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvLfOb1oJDk&t=699s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=tvLfOb1oJDk","timecode":"11:39","startMs":699000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"And so today the AI chip market is starting to look much less monopolistic. AI coding agents can make it easier to write software that works on non-CUDA chip stacks, and the teams behind competing chips have plenty of resources and economic incentives to bring performance in line with NVIDIA. Even if it's going to be a big hassle, even if you're going to just spin up a team to get AMD or TPU working, it's going to be worth it because you're talking about billions and billions of dollars spent on chips."},"performance":{"entryPrice":273.57,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_92a2cfc0a4af3d61e0","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_92a2cfc0a4af3d61e0","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The 80% margins are a target on NVIDIA's back, every AI lab now has billions of reasons to make rival chips work and break the CUDA lock-in.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvLfOb1oJDk&t=589s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=tvLfOb1oJDk","timecode":"9:49","startMs":589000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"But recently, the biggest cost center for AI labs flipped from researcher time, more or less, to compute capacity. And this creates a much larger economic incentive to figure out a way to drive down the cost of chips used to train AI models."},"performance":{"entryPrice":198.13,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_c757bb4ff26efb9f07","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_c757bb4ff26efb9f07","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Small-cap biotech gets bid up as cash-rich pharma buys out innovators to refill pipelines facing a $170B+ patent cliff; an equal-weight basket of those targets captures the takeout premiums.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"XBI","name":"XBI","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyXxasva-rQ&t=4843s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=gyXxasva-rQ","timecode":"80:43","startMs":4843000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Certainly the GLP-1 boom. One of the trends that's going on here is that the industry has to restock the shelves for new drugs. As drugs go off patent, there's these revenue cliffs. And so Big Pharma is sitting on probably the largest pile of capital they've ever sat on, and they look to acquire a lot of their innovations from small companies. Those are the folks that we support to create new medicines. So there's definitely a huge M&A trend that's happening this year, and it'll continue to happen for the foreseeable future."},"performance":{"entryPrice":138.1150054932,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_f283566df429e2b87d","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_f283566df429e2b87d","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The Sphere is what VR was always trying to be, a real novel experience that will land one in every major city and suck in only the best acts, and it already returned 442% against NVIDIA's 100%.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SPHR","name":"SPHR","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyXxasva-rQ&t=6591s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=gyXxasva-rQ","timecode":"109:51","startMs":6591000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"This is how you capture value over the next cycle. And I agree with this. I think this is a great take."},"performance":{"entryPrice":131.5099945068,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_1306d62a48d27b6e1e","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_1306d62a48d27b6e1e","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"AST's satellite got dumped into the wrong orbit and has to be deorbited, but the loss is covered by insurance and the stock already clawed back most of its drop.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ASTS","name":"ASTS","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyXxasva-rQ&t=1827s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=gyXxasva-rQ","timecode":"30:27","startMs":1827000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"AST said the satellite's altitude was too low to sustain operations and that it will be taken out of orbit. The cost is expected to be covered under its insurance policy."},"performance":{"entryPrice":80.4550018311,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_41b5810fc216e4d2fd","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_41b5810fc216e4d2fd","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The SaaSpocalypse hasn't shown up in the numbers, Salesforce revenue is reaccelerating from 8.7% to 10.8%, and customers aren't ripping it out for AI.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyXxasva-rQ&t=375s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=gyXxasva-rQ","timecode":"6:15","startMs":375000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Benioff thinks the bears have it wrong about the SaaSpocalypse thesis generally, and especially about Salesforce. AI, he says, is making Salesforce more valuable to its customers than ever."},"performance":{"entryPrice":186.8099975586,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_54757bef0945feb01f","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_54757bef0945feb01f","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Orders climb for the maker whose gas turbines fire the plant early and whose BWRX-300 reactor takes over the steam later, as an NRC-blessed financing model finally makes new nuclear buildable on a timeline data centers can plan around.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"GEV","name":"GEV","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CD9iwAqesrY&t=7968s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=CD9iwAqesrY","timecode":"132:48","startMs":7968000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Yeah, we'll be announcing things, uh, very soon. Uh, but what I can share on the dates, and this is actually another unique thing we're doing, part of our strategy is we're pursuing this thing we call gas-to-nuclear conversion. So we're actually going to be building half the nuclear plant right away. Okay, so the whole nuclear steam turbine system set up for nuclear steam conditions and quality, and we're going to fire it early with two combustion turbines as a two-on-one combined cycle. So it's kind of a Frankenstein combined cycle."},"performance":{"entryPrice":990.8599853516,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7499aa0b12fcf6adfb","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7499aa0b12fcf6adfb","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Google's model now powers the next Siri across a billion iPhones, a marquee distribution win on top of a year it overtook Apple's market cap and shipped Gemini 3. The laggard pays the leader.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"GOOGL","name":"GOOGL","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CD9iwAqesrY&t=1351s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=CD9iwAqesrY","timecode":"22:31","startMs":1351000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"So Ternus is—"},"performance":{"entryPrice":332.78,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_e126fca62ae4baa85f","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_e126fca62ae4baa85f","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The whole company gets repriced as investors realize the database isn't a fading legacy line but a still-growing engine, separate from the AI buildout it's lumped in with.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ORCL","name":"ORCL","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CD9iwAqesrY&t=1864s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=CD9iwAqesrY","timecode":"31:04","startMs":1864000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Oracle database as a revenue line within Oracle is growing."},"performance":{"entryPrice":183.43,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_b6e66ed19b315ac1ff","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_b6e66ed19b315ac1ff","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The only listed pure-play geothermal name re-rates as hyperscalers sign baseload power deals the grid and solar can't fill, turning a fringe energy bet into core AI infrastructure.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ORA","name":"ORA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i83KOz2w_xg&t=4882s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=i83KOz2w_xg","timecode":"81:22","startMs":4882000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"And the building the sandbox piece is the really hard piece. You have to put the right data in there, you have to put the right learning, objective rates, and so forth. That's, that's the piece that we live in. We build the sandboxes for the models."},"performance":{"entryPrice":107,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}}]}