{"version":"market-claims.v1","expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"stats":{"sources":22,"marketClaims":50,"explicitCalls":0,"directionalTheses":50,"ambiguousMentions":0,"openClaims":50,"median30dReturn":null,"lastUpdatedLabel":"recently"},"claims":[{"id":"mcl_a6ee236a4e022f8f41","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_a6ee236a4e022f8f41","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"A decisive, deal-hungry White House where companies that just show up and ask get what they want, a green light for American business.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SP500","name":"SP500","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EagrRPukYdc&t=7469s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=EagrRPukYdc","timecode":"124:29","startMs":7469000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"The thing about Trump that I think very few people took advantage of last time is that he's very accessible and very pragmatic... the people who reached out and went and sat with him and shared their ideas, he always listened. And most of the time they were able to achieve outcomes that were very good."},"performance":{"entryPrice":5917.814059063,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_6e48aea4acfe164599","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_6e48aea4acfe164599","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"In ride-hailing the gap between winner and loser is widening fast, and Lyft sits on the losing side against Uber as execution and leadership now decide everything.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"LYFT","name":"LYFT","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHYr_CeiGOM&t=3833s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=WHYr_CeiGOM","timecode":"63:53","startMs":3833000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Uber versus Lyft. And, you know, there's there's so many examples of winners and losers getting way more pronounced. And a lot of that's strategic decision. A lot of that's leadership, honestly, and execution."},"performance":{"entryPrice":11.6099996567,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_9a7294be422a27e31f","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_9a7294be422a27e31f","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Now that money costs something again, the strong operators are crushing the weak, and in food delivery DoorDash is beating everyone else in the space outright.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"DASH","name":"DASH","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHYr_CeiGOM&t=3800s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=WHYr_CeiGOM","timecode":"63:20","startMs":3800000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"with the cost of capital coming back and largely going to persist... you're seeing just winners and losers across industries in ways that we have not seen for a really long time"},"performance":{"entryPrice":187.6999969482,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_1a4ad90ffa3c1ab6a1","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_1a4ad90ffa3c1ab6a1","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The big private-asset managers like Apollo have a flywheel spinning on its own, and the market still cannot figure out how to price their profit share, leaving them underowned.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"APO","name":"APO","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WHYr_CeiGOM&t=4530s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=WHYr_CeiGOM","timecode":"75:30","startMs":4530000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"we see this now, I would say, like in the alts space, for example, where these businesses are now, you know, they're all mostly public. And that's like Apollo, correct? Yeah, KKR, or Aries and their ability to offer unparalleled customer service, product innovation, opportunities for talent development, new channels of growth is just it's spinning on its own in terms of this flywheel"},"performance":{"entryPrice":134.9199981689,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_c2ebdbbba6ce361232","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_c2ebdbbba6ce361232","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Fragrance houses are quietly great businesses, recession-proof because scent is in 90 percent of household products, with fat margins and customers who almost never switch suppliers.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"IFF","name":"IFF","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyZKMLhYCzE&t=2799s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=GyZKMLhYCzE","timecode":"46:39","startMs":2799000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"One is they, at a first brush, are recession-proof. So if people aren't buying luxury fragrances, they're buying hand soap, right? So fragrance is in 90% of the products in your household."},"performance":{"entryPrice":80.8099975586,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_bfee8ad00930da3b63","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_bfee8ad00930da3b63","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The company sitting on Marvel, Star Wars and Pixar gets more valuable, not less, when AI just speeds up production and the next Spielberg never shows. Owned IP is the scarce asset; the deep-library owner wins as the AI-replaces-Hollywood story fades.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"DIS","name":"DIS","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RHFu4N3fq4&t=5261s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=0RHFu4N3fq4","timecode":"87:41","startMs":5261000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"So first of all, I'm not as worried about AI as everybody else is in the content creation side. I happen to feel it's going to be a big benefit in production, especially in production planning. With respect to creativity... There's no emotion now. Will they get there? Maybe. It's still a handmade craft."},"performance":{"entryPrice":83.3000030518,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_0579679a36f77d927a","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_0579679a36f77d927a","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Nobody rents an extra lift because prices dropped, and nobody skips building because they rose, so the few big rental firms quietly print profits.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"URI","name":"URI","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laBi8as1FrE&t=1250s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=laBi8as1FrE","timecode":"20:50","startMs":1250000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"One of the investments I sort of cut my teeth the most on where I first had a lot of success was in the construction equipment rental business. And that is also a Cournot oligopoly."},"performance":{"entryPrice":630.1799926758,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_6e0468c70082280501","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_6e0468c70082280501","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Nicotine hits the brain fast and hard, locking smokers into one brand for life, which is why these are the highest-margin consumer products around.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"PM","name":"PM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laBi8as1FrE&t=1569s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=laBi8as1FrE","timecode":"26:09","startMs":1569000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"in the case of nicotine, inhaled through a cigarette or a vaping product, Nicotine is incredibly powerful, and the respiratory system is a very fast delivery mechanism. So you get this very rapid stimulation of people's pleasure sensors, and lo and behold, it creates these very strong secondary reinforcers which make people very brand loyal."},"performance":{"entryPrice":170.2599945068,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_51794fc091987f6ed6","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_51794fc091987f6ed6","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Cruise operators can't conjure new ships overnight, so the handful that exist quietly behave like monopolists and bank fat profits.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CCL","name":"CCL","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laBi8as1FrE&t=1184s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=laBi8as1FrE","timecode":"19:44","startMs":1184000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"this is a perfect example of Cournot oligopoly. The number of cruise ships is fixed, and in the short to medium term, so they maximize yield, which basically means they're adjusting price."},"performance":{"entryPrice":18.7099990845,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_5d74cca8108bdd7d84","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_5d74cca8108bdd7d84","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"A founder-run energy-drink brand with real pricing power and a Coca-Cola anchor re-rates higher as deals across the category reset what these brands are worth.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"MNST","name":"MNST","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ak7oLVMlhfM&t=3309s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=Ak7oLVMlhfM","timecode":"55:09","startMs":3309000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"There's some Austrian guy that owns Red Bull, that is turning down his... he turned down multiple offers where he would have made $20 billion for his 49%."},"performance":{"entryPrice":60.9099998474,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7286eaaa9ea81aa2a9","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7286eaaa9ea81aa2a9","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"A listed market-maker's profits swell when volatility and wide spreads persist, the same regime that gave Citadel its best years; Virtu is the public proxy.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"VIRT","name":"VIRT","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ak7oLVMlhfM&t=562s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=Ak7oLVMlhfM","timecode":"9:22","startMs":562000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"He's founded Citadel, I think 35 years ago. And I think he founded Citadel Securities 23 years ago. And he just said, we've had the most, the best financial years of our entire life in the last 4 years."},"performance":{"entryPrice":41.9399986267,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_47ef3d71bfb4843420","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_47ef3d71bfb4843420","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Cheaper AI won't shrink demand, it explodes it, just like cheap spreadsheets created far more number-crunching than before, so compute appetite is basically infinite.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ny4NVhuJWYI&t=2828s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ny4NVhuJWYI","timecode":"47:08","startMs":2828000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"When there's no cost to spreadsheeting... We just came up with so much more spreadsheeting that you could do. And it's bigger than ever."},"performance":{"entryPrice":135.6257273118,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_25dae68ce702a042cf","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_25dae68ce702a042cf","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"AI breaks the old free software economics because every answer costs real money, so products will start charging users by how much computing they burn.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"MSFT","name":"MSFT","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ny4NVhuJWYI&t=2620s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ny4NVhuJWYI","timecode":"43:40","startMs":2620000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the previous sort of VC model... was you make a big upfront investment and then you amortize and you get to almost zero marginal cost. That's how software worked. That's not how AI works. The marginal cost is high and you need to cover it."},"performance":{"entryPrice":458.9440155904,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_13a93311e9ce8f1a4f","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_13a93311e9ce8f1a4f","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The biggest alternative asset managers are set to scoop up a flood of new money as everyday investors finally get to buy into private equity through their wealth advisors.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"BX","name":"BX","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2nHljZeMQ8&t=5511s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=u2nHljZeMQ8","timecode":"91:51","startMs":5511000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"individuals are starting to be able to go into private equity through their wealth management, which didn't used to be a thing."},"performance":{"entryPrice":136.1199951172,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_d8e1d311121087bb70","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_d8e1d311121087bb70","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Everything illiquid is heading toward 24/7 trading, with private funds getting tokenized on blockchain and even stock-backed tokens going live.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"COIN","name":"COIN","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17bGyLB00s0&t=2013s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=17bGyLB00s0","timecode":"33:33","startMs":2013000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"we have a high-level view that all assets are going to get more liquid over time. And so the question is, what's that going to do to returns and what's that going to do to volatility of those returns"},"performance":{"entryPrice":246.7755529787,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_11b91b40f6964a1043","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_11b91b40f6964a1043","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"US stocks trade 5 to 7 turns richer than the rest of the world and that premium holds, built on rule of law, talent, and the cheapest capital anywhere.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SP500","name":"SP500","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17bGyLB00s0&t=536s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=17bGyLB00s0","timecode":"8:56","startMs":536000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Our growth vector is just higher because we have a lower cost of capital. We get better talent, we get better companies to go public. We have a $50 trillion debt market. Just amazing tailwinds."},"performance":{"entryPrice":5933.1835528323,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_d8f5f3e3ddaf0f5253","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_d8f5f3e3ddaf0f5253","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Europe could finally break out of a decade of stagnation, with Germany firing up the printing press on defense and infrastructure and stocks re-rating higher.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"EZU","name":"EZU","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17bGyLB00s0&t=602s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=17bGyLB00s0","timecode":"10:02","startMs":602000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Multi-trillion-dollar opportunity to take assets out of the banks into private credit and create tons of liquidity to fund all these growth projects with Germany and France and the rest of the eurozone need to do because they've underspent on lots of infrastructure and defense."},"performance":{"entryPrice":59.5900001526,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7dd03fda97eeba06b8","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7dd03fda97eeba06b8","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Selling company shares as crypto tokens could kill the bank IPO racket that underprices deals by a third, and that path runs straight through blockchain rails.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3rrGzTDH4k&t=1843s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=o3rrGzTDH4k","timecode":"30:43","startMs":1843000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"There's a really interesting post by Hester Peirce... this post called A Creative and Cooperative Balancing Act argues that maybe blockchain is the path to fix the IPO market, which is provocative."},"performance":{"entryPrice":110373,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-40.898589,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_f1d657926181ead8fd","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_f1d657926181ead8fd","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"China is going all in on free open AI models that teach each other to get smarter, and that could hand its tech giants a powerful edge the US won't replicate.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"BABA","name":"BABA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3rrGzTDH4k&t=3741s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=o3rrGzTDH4k","timecode":"62:21","startMs":3741000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"when Deepseek hit and took off... Alibaba made Qwen open source. Xiaomi has a model out now... And Robin Li at Baidu had kept his model proprietary and he said in June it's going to be open source."},"performance":{"entryPrice":121.7784728909,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_a3717903cff11eaf22","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_a3717903cff11eaf22","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The very school that taught everyone to load up on illiquid bets is now scrambling to sell, and if more giants rush the exits, private stakes could sell at painful discounts.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"BX","name":"BX","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3rrGzTDH4k&t=1194s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=o3rrGzTDH4k","timecode":"19:54","startMs":1194000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Yale has announced that they're in the market looking to sell $6 billion of private equity. The fact that Yale is the one doing it is super important"},"performance":{"entryPrice":142.9600067139,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_8aca7b5ccda7d478d4","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_8aca7b5ccda7d478d4","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Everybody piled into AI and dumped consumer internet, but the best consumer compounders like Spotify keep growing for years off billions of engaged phone users.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SPOT","name":"SPOT","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=15dCw7lxqRk&t=132s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=15dCw7lxqRk","timecode":"2:12","startMs":132000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"huge focus on SaaS, huge focus on all things AI, and huge de-emphasis of consumer-based internet businesses. And so I think that's actually a pretty interesting opportunity where one can be contrarian and we continue to see interesting private opportunities that I think most of the world's not focused on."},"performance":{"entryPrice":715.5700073242,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_02c45e7c8214b2ee26","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_02c45e7c8214b2ee26","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"AI training on copyrighted work is the Napster moment all over again, you cannot stop it, and the winners will be the ones who build the next Spotify instead of suing.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SPOT","name":"SPOT","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p-aE0mkUWYM&t=78s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=p-aE0mkUWYM","timecode":"1:18","startMs":78000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I'd compare like this phase in like AI models training off of like copyrighted data is like the Napster moment"},"performance":{"entryPrice":731.1500244141,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_bdef0f5b92c565d698","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_bdef0f5b92c565d698","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Closed networks are where trust goes in a post-truth, deepfake world, and Reddit is emerging as a platform with tremendous power.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"RDDT","name":"RDDT","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNIwtH5-Lq8&t=4080s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=eNIwtH5-Lq8","timecode":"68:00","startMs":4080000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"The power of the individual is only going to strengthen in this current culture. There's no doubt about it."},"performance":{"entryPrice":150.5700073242,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_f98ffef88542f6fc35","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_f98ffef88542f6fc35","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Banana Republic is having its best year in decades, a classic brand back from the dead riding the comfort wave.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"GAP","name":"GAP","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNIwtH5-Lq8&t=674s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=eNIwtH5-Lq8","timecode":"11:14","startMs":674000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Banana Republic is having the best year in probably decades."},"performance":{"entryPrice":21.8099994659,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_71614f7f1eec76174c","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_71614f7f1eec76174c","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Olive Garden and the comfort-food chains are booming because scared, uncertain people clamor for warm familiar things, not futurism.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"DRI","name":"DRI","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNIwtH5-Lq8&t=674s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=eNIwtH5-Lq8","timecode":"11:14","startMs":674000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"What makes us feel good? Olive Garden, country music, Applebee's is booming, you know, Banana Republic is having the best year in probably decades."},"performance":{"entryPrice":217.9700012207,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_8a88f0820431f88031","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_8a88f0820431f88031","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Victoria's Secret is doing just fine while the Street still trades the 2020 obituary, go to any mall and watch 20-somethings carry the bags.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"VSCO","name":"VSCO","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNIwtH5-Lq8&t=1206s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=eNIwtH5-Lq8","timecode":"20:06","startMs":1206000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Victoria's Secret is, is right up there too, right? Um, they had an Epstein connection because the founder Les Wexner had one. They had totally lost that kind of connectivity with the customer."},"performance":{"entryPrice":18.5200004578,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_f35f3d872b52871bed","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_f35f3d872b52871bed","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"A $20 billion funding partnership lets Affirm pump out far more loans without bloating its own books, the kind of fuel that scales a lender fast.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"AFRM","name":"AFRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPFor81KJx0&t=3242s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=zPFor81KJx0","timecode":"54:02","startMs":3242000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"We did Affirm, Max Levchin's company... a $20 billion partnership with them where we formed a joint venture with them so they could originate more assets and have more operating leverage."},"performance":{"entryPrice":64.0500030518,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_3a0fea411c7fe060f2","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_3a0fea411c7fe060f2","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"AI is colliding with a hard limit on power, and the firms that locked up data centers and electricity early own the bottleneck everyone else now needs.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPFor81KJx0&t=3353s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=zPFor81KJx0","timecode":"55:53","startMs":3353000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"we started doing data centers back in 2017 with, with Airtrunk... which is actually just got bought by Blackstone for, I think, $16 billion or something like that."},"performance":{"entryPrice":164.1096377608,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_043b1f202904716339","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_043b1f202904716339","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Trillions in private wealth are about to pour into private markets, lifting allocations from a sliver to where pensions already sit, a tide the big managers ride.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"BX","name":"BX","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zPFor81KJx0&t=1428s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=zPFor81KJx0","timecode":"23:48","startMs":1428000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the wealth channel... they're underexposed to private alternatives relative to, say, a pension fund at, call it, 40% or an endowment at 50%. So at 3 to 5%, that should probably go up."},"performance":{"entryPrice":163.3600006104,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_cb6f8eea3f9e90b9de","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_cb6f8eea3f9e90b9de","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The top private credit firms are the clear winners, because in a now-brokered market the brokers bring deals to the biggest names first, so the best firms get the best loans and the best teams.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ARES","name":"ARES","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7E9euLwWtE&t=5571s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=M7E9euLwWtE","timecode":"92:51","startMs":5571000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"there are some private credit firms that are spectacular. I mean, superior... Firms like Ares or let's say Golub are stellar at what they do and they have great credit cultures. They have really complete teams that deal with underwriting and workouts"},"performance":{"entryPrice":188.5500030518,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_17347fed623d489930","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_17347fed623d489930","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Big public companies actually win under tariffs, because they have the pricing power to push costs down their supply chain while the little guys eat the margin hit.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"SP500","name":"SP500","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7E9euLwWtE&t=1010s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=M7E9euLwWtE","timecode":"16:50","startMs":1010000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I can make a pretty strong argument that public companies will actually benefit from the tariff regime. And, you know, again, I'm going to assume that the West Wing is being thoughtful in its analysis and its dealmaking strategy, and they've probably come to a similar conclusion."},"performance":{"entryPrice":6318.2731005403,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_011e7fa3d230708e89","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_011e7fa3d230708e89","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"AI won't kill the big software names, it hands them a huge new market: Adobe could jump from 3 percent of users to 20 percent, and copilots make every existing product better.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"MSFT","name":"MSFT","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4zzkuFyI18&t=5517s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=g4zzkuFyI18","timecode":"91:57","startMs":5517000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"So I think the bear case on software Hey, I could just use Claude to write my next SAP. We're not losing any sleep over that. Because that's not what software ever was. It was never a technology barrier. It was always a business knowledge barrier."},"performance":{"entryPrice":515.3599853516,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_9a3c549abd3aab12aa","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_9a3c549abd3aab12aa","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Hollywood is irrelevant and Netflix is the leader, because what wins now is subscriptions, not whether anyone actually watches the movie.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NFLX","name":"NFLX","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAKINNEVs-M&t=3073s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=dAKINNEVs-M","timecode":"51:13","startMs":3073000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"How do you deal when the business model, instead of being the audience reaction to it, is to take a subscription to Prime, whose business model is to get you to buy products on Amazon... They could not care less whether one person or 9 billion people see it."},"performance":{"entryPrice":122.8844308019,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_01d7ed21e63ae54a42","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_01d7ed21e63ae54a42","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Search traffic is dying fast, and any publisher whose life depends on Google is headed close to extinct.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"GOOGL","name":"GOOGL","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAKINNEVs-M&t=3288s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=dAKINNEVs-M","timecode":"54:48","startMs":3288000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"publishing— all publishers— what's happening with Google is just— it is going, you know, they say it goes slow and then it goes fast. It's going fast... If you depend on your life traffic from Google, from search, you're going to be close to extinct if that's what you do."},"performance":{"entryPrice":252.4676028976,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_25e240a8b91c11e4e1","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_25e240a8b91c11e4e1","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Hundreds of billions are pouring into AI with no known way to earn it back, the same eyeballs-over-revenue mistake that sank the dot-com darlings.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dAKINNEVs-M&t=2222s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=dAKINNEVs-M","timecode":"37:02","startMs":2222000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I would approach this, this next super period, uh, in the same way, which would make me very wary of, uh, what now seems to be the cat's meow, which is huge expenditures in areas in which there is no known revenue,"},"performance":{"entryPrice":183.7607513776,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_c538b22bcea2be5751","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_c538b22bcea2be5751","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The golden SaaS model breaks when AI piles on heavy running costs, sales stays expensive, and customers can just build it themselves.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAIVualeQjM&t=7099s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=kAIVualeQjM","timecode":"118:19","startMs":7099000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"now you add this AI part of it, you've now added a humongous COGS, right? Your cost of goods sold in any AI software is really hard and really big."},"performance":{"entryPrice":245.1000061035,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_34432f74451b9815f6","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_34432f74451b9815f6","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"A nineteen billion dollar deal with a customer the market trusts more than the US government, throwing off six billion in pure profit.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NBIS","name":"NBIS","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAIVualeQjM&t=4431s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=kAIVualeQjM","timecode":"73:51","startMs":4431000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"The other end of the spectrum is what Nebius just signed. I'm signing fucking $19 billion to Microsoft."},"performance":{"entryPrice":110.2200012207,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_8e79080e1c8b15e483","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_8e79080e1c8b15e483","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Lovable underdog, but mid: too many hard things to build and no real leap to ever dent the chip king's lead.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"AMD","name":"AMD","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAIVualeQjM&t=6218s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=kAIVualeQjM","timecode":"103:38","startMs":6218000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I'm not really a big bull on the accelerator companies, I've never been. Companies make competing with NVIDIA... not a big bull on those kinds of companies."},"performance":{"entryPrice":161.4044194565,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7e87e5f1a4aaff7712","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7e87e5f1a4aaff7712","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Skip it over Taiwan risk and you have to skip Apple and Google too, because the whole US economy stops without these chips, so just own it.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"TSM","name":"TSM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAIVualeQjM&t=5901s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=kAIVualeQjM","timecode":"98:21","startMs":5901000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"US economy kind of freefalls, right? 'Cause we can't make refrigerators without Taiwanese chips. We can't make cars. We can't make AI data centers."},"performance":{"entryPrice":273.2875086406,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_9a7f518de1e43093fa","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_9a7f518de1e43093fa","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Wide awake on every front now, with the cheapest cost to run AI of anyone and Android, YouTube, and search to win both consumers and businesses.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"GOOGL","name":"GOOGL","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAIVualeQjM&t=6244s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=kAIVualeQjM","timecode":"104:04","startMs":6244000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I was pretty bearish Google like 2 years ago, but I'm like super bullish Google... They're waking up on every front. You know, they're taking the TPUs, they're selling them externally."},"performance":{"entryPrice":244.030434779,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_3f4b460c9ccb7d34b2","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_3f4b460c9ccb7d34b2","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The only company with everything needed to own the next way people use computers, glasses you just talk to, with the hardware, models, and money all in one house.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"META","name":"META","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAIVualeQjM&t=6762s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=kAIVualeQjM","timecode":"112:42","startMs":6762000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I think Meta's got the cards to potentially like own it all... the next paradigm in human-computer interface is we don't actually have to touch it at all. We tell the AI what we want"},"performance":{"entryPrice":743.6533986555,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_e30811941643cb05bb","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_e30811941643cb05bb","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"A $300 billion bet on OpenAI pays out $100 billion in pure profit if it works, and craters the whole company if OpenAI can't pay the bill.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ORCL","name":"ORCL","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAIVualeQjM&t=313s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=kAIVualeQjM","timecode":"5:13","startMs":313000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Oracle is making a massive bet... he signed a $300 billion deal with OpenAI."},"performance":{"entryPrice":283.0600131518,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_37baf35780191e492e","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_37baf35780191e492e","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Every dollar in the AI gold rush ends up at the one company selling the shovels, and it carries none of the risk while everyone else does.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAIVualeQjM&t=796s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=kAIVualeQjM","timecode":"13:16","startMs":796000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"OpenAI slash its partner spends $50 billion on the data center... $35 goes into NVIDIA. NVIDIA's gross margin is 75%."},"performance":{"entryPrice":181.9422488602,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_616ca01012b9ec6953","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_616ca01012b9ec6953","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Google quietly holds the winning hand in AI because it owns the consumers, and consumers are where all the fresh training data comes from.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"GOOGL","name":"GOOGL","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyfdU8_tn5Y&t=3832s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=SyfdU8_tn5Y","timecode":"63:52","startMs":3832000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I'm very bullish on Google, actually."},"performance":{"entryPrice":245.451097989,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_bcd40bd76181e5557e","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_bcd40bd76181e5557e","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"America's AI lead rests almost entirely on owning the best chips, and Trump wants to tax NVIDIA 15 percent and ship far more compute straight to China.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSY68wBQ97I&t=4407s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=DSY68wBQ97I","timecode":"73:27","startMs":4407000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Today, I think that the US still has a decisive lead on most aspects of artificial intelligence, mostly because it has the compute resources here. It has the leading NVIDIA chips and China does not."},"performance":{"entryPrice":179.8951891203,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_1cd255752b0b5969a0","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_1cd255752b0b5969a0","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Chinese tech giants gush cash and trade at a fraction of US peers, but the Party can randomly smash a company and Taiwan sanctions could freeze it all.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"BABA","name":"BABA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSY68wBQ97I&t=2364s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=DSY68wBQ97I","timecode":"39:24","startMs":2364000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Chinese companies are really capable, and China's economy has grown by an average of something like 9% over the 20 years, and what has been happening to China's stock market, it's been essentially flat"},"performance":{"entryPrice":165.7925330223,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_372ed4f7dce0086648","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_372ed4f7dce0086648","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Prices for sports teams, tickets and rights are all going way up, fueled by PE money and a flood of new betting dollars chasing the action.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"TKO","name":"TKO","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDuqUlZZ8Vk&t=3986s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=xDuqUlZZ8Vk","timecode":"66:26","startMs":3986000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Prices are going way up."},"performance":{"entryPrice":188.3699951172,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_0da74fd4c7eff991d7","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_0da74fd4c7eff991d7","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"If you're a betting man, you bet on Elon, the guy who sleeps on the factory floor on two hours and wills things into existence until they're fixed.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"TSLA","name":"TSLA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDuqUlZZ8Vk&t=2852s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=xDuqUlZZ8Vk","timecode":"47:32","startMs":2852000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"If I'm a betting man, first of all, if I'm a betting man, I'm betting on that dude. I bet on him on SpaceX, X, XAI, Twitter."},"performance":{"entryPrice":403.1,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_aebd0fbaaf0e0f8c7b","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_aebd0fbaaf0e0f8c7b","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"After five years underweight China, the tensions have stabilized and conditions are improving, time to pick it up again, just did two deals in a market full of innovation.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"BABA","name":"BABA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a34VyGpf8s4&t=1963s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=a34VyGpf8s4","timecode":"32:43","startMs":1963000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"China is fascinating... It's the fastest change in terms of per capita GDP in modern history of any country at scale... tremendous amount of innovation."},"performance":{"entryPrice":160.6161927318,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_884fe2ce1ef160e704","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_884fe2ce1ef160e704","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The AI top is not here yet because it is not crazy enough, the build-out is funded by the richest companies on earth printing cash, not junk bond speculators levering up.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"XYZ100","name":"XYZ100","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a34VyGpf8s4&t=3150s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=a34VyGpf8s4","timecode":"52:30","startMs":3150000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I know we're going to have a moment where we're all going to wake up and say we've invested too much. I don't know if it's 3 years away or 18 months away. I don't think it's happened yet. For sure it hasn't happened yet."},"performance":{"entryPrice":24817,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}}]}