{"version":"market-claims.v1","expert":{"slug":"goodalexander","displayName":"goodalexander","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/33a586b6-f","url":"/trace/experts/goodalexander","claimed":false},"stats":{"sources":2,"marketClaims":12,"explicitCalls":0,"directionalTheses":12,"ambiguousMentions":0,"openClaims":12,"median30dReturn":null,"lastUpdatedLabel":"recently"},"claims":[{"id":"mcl_35645d7ed8243425bc","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_35645d7ed8243425bc","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The most crowded AI long is the one to fade, because Gemini is a bad model nobody codes with and the cloud backlog looks like a fake hockey stick.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"goodalexander","displayName":"goodalexander","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/33a586b6-f","url":"/trace/experts/goodalexander","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"GOOGL","name":"GOOGL","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2793522078?t=9463s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2793522078","timecode":"157:43","startMs":9463000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Notice that we just spoke nearly an hour and a half about tech stocks without talking about Google. It's, it's the most consensus buy-side long. Everyone's long, right?"},"performance":{"entryPrice":355.29,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_540e826f18f401f019","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_540e826f18f401f019","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Palantir's entire pitch could be wrong, because if smarter AI models no longer need its special data structure, an angry Anthropic working with Goldman can gut the stock.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"goodalexander","displayName":"goodalexander","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/33a586b6-f","url":"/trace/experts/goodalexander","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"PLTR","name":"PLTR","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2793522078?t=8507s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2793522078","timecode":"141:47","startMs":8507000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Anthropic is powering a lot of Palantir ontology deployments, and I believe that if they kind of came to market... if Dario Amodei really wants to say... you really don't want to be on the wrong side of Goldman Sachs and Anthropic right now."},"performance":{"entryPrice":129.06,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_544de388e62c2d4e27","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_544de388e62c2d4e27","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"A former telecom analyst is short T-Mobile, because it's up triple digits on little growth and Starlink could make the carrier model obsolete.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"goodalexander","displayName":"goodalexander","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/33a586b6-f","url":"/trace/experts/goodalexander","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"TMUS","name":"TMUS","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2793522078?t=5760s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2793522078","timecode":"96:00","startMs":5760000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Yeah, I'm short every telecom stock right now."},"performance":{"entryPrice":185.55,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_fcf20e4b83e9621e6d","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_fcf20e4b83e9621e6d","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"A former telecom analyst is short the whole sector, because carriers are up triple digits on almost no growth and the SpaceX IPO is about to drain the liquidity propping them up.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"goodalexander","displayName":"goodalexander","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/33a586b6-f","url":"/trace/experts/goodalexander","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"VZ","name":"VZ","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2793522078?t=5760s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2793522078","timecode":"96:00","startMs":5760000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Yeah, I'm short every telecom stock right now."},"performance":{"entryPrice":46.95,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_e3f526cc430ac37485","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_e3f526cc430ac37485","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"OpenAI is the AI winner nobody believes in, because 900 million users plus an ad business everyone is sleeping on is the same setup that minted Amazon.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"goodalexander","displayName":"goodalexander","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/33a586b6-f","url":"/trace/experts/goodalexander","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"OPENAI","name":"OPENAI","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2793522078?t=6761s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2793522078","timecode":"112:41","startMs":6761000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"OpenAI has 3 times the number of users as, you know, Amazon. It has 900 million chat DAUs and currently the market narrative and the market consensus is that Sam Altman's an idiot because he has 900 million DAUs and he's losing money on the DAUs."},"performance":{"entryPrice":1273.3,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_432d407fccb22b8d48","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_432d407fccb22b8d48","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Monero climbs as privacy-coin adoption accelerates: it outlived EU kill attempts, shipped its biggest upgrade in years, and keeps trading even as exchanges delist it while Bitcoin's story cracks.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"goodalexander","displayName":"goodalexander","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/33a586b6-f","url":"/trace/experts/goodalexander","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"XMR","name":"XMR","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziKGZlxghSU&t=8372s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ziKGZlxghSU","timecode":"139:32","startMs":8372000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Where are you on Bitcoin versus other coins? I mean, obviously you mentioned Zcash. Like, how strong do you think the Bitcoin thesis is these days? And how, how much maxi-ness needs to be considered in that thesis? The Bitcoin thesis is getting weaker by the day."},"performance":{"entryPrice":352.03,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_8737f2415a01377e9f","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_8737f2415a01377e9f","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Nintendo got cut 40% because in-game AI was too expensive to pay off, but once AI compute gets cheap that whole story flips for gaming.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"goodalexander","displayName":"goodalexander","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/33a586b6-f","url":"/trace/experts/goodalexander","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NTDOY","name":"NTDOY","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziKGZlxghSU&t=9431s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ziKGZlxghSU","timecode":"157:11","startMs":9431000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"like right now, for example, Nintendo is down, you know, 40% over the last year."},"performance":{"entryPrice":11.4300003052,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_14e76ef99796f2861d","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_14e76ef99796f2861d","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The gaming selloff overshoots; as AI gets cheap it speeds up game development and DLC, the next GTA ships in 7 years not 10 and earnings come forward.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"goodalexander","displayName":"goodalexander","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/33a586b6-f","url":"/trace/experts/goodalexander","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"TTWO","name":"TTWO","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziKGZlxghSU&t=9431s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ziKGZlxghSU","timecode":"157:11","startMs":9431000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Or, you know, Take-Two is like getting— even though they've got a new GTA game, it's getting smoked. And there was a narrative that like for a while that, you know, video games would be a big beneficiary of AI."},"performance":{"entryPrice":215.8000030518,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_142081c2bcc98949ba","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_142081c2bcc98949ba","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Coinbase revenue is decelerating hard as the crowd ditches buying tokens like Solana to pile into B2B stocks instead.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"goodalexander","displayName":"goodalexander","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/33a586b6-f","url":"/trace/experts/goodalexander","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"COIN","name":"COIN","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziKGZlxghSU&t=9193s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ziKGZlxghSU","timecode":"153:13","startMs":9193000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"You know, if you look at Coinbase, it's like got substantial sequential revenue deceleration. So, you know, people are not investing in Solana, they're, they're investing in HPE. And so, you know, the sort of B2B focus of the markets has completely changed."},"performance":{"entryPrice":163.02,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_091c8ea2400d7b02c6","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_091c8ea2400d7b02c6","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Boring old memory names like Micron are up 300% because AI dragged retail into complex chip stories they used to ignore, and that keeps going.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"goodalexander","displayName":"goodalexander","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/33a586b6-f","url":"/trace/experts/goodalexander","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"MU","name":"MU","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziKGZlxghSU&t=9162s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ziKGZlxghSU","timecode":"152:42","startMs":9162000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Now it's like, okay, now it has triple-digit, you know, data center growth. And it's the things that are going up are kind of historically stocks that retail would have never thought of. And a lot of them like SanDisk and like Micron."},"performance":{"entryPrice":1060.9,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_776ec49b034493a531","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_776ec49b034493a531","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The most boring company in the world is suddenly pumping on triple-digit data center growth, and now AI tools let regular people understand stories like this that they'd never have touched before.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"goodalexander","displayName":"goodalexander","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/33a586b6-f","url":"/trace/experts/goodalexander","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"HPE","name":"HPE","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziKGZlxghSU&t=9136s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ziKGZlxghSU","timecode":"152:16","startMs":9136000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"some of these stocks that are, that are pumping, like HPE, you know, like I used to trade this thing back when I was at a hedge fund. It is the most boring company in the world."},"performance":{"entryPrice":55.1650009155,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_704c3c847a84a3a232","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_704c3c847a84a3a232","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Saylor's pile of preferred and convertible debt on top of Bitcoin has concentrated the whole thing, and now the unwind is dragging Bitcoin down with no easy way back.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"goodalexander","displayName":"goodalexander","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/33a586b6-f","url":"/trace/experts/goodalexander","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"MSTR","name":"MSTR","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziKGZlxghSU&t=8391s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ziKGZlxghSU","timecode":"139:51","startMs":8391000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"it also has the unfortunate sort of leverage concentration for Michael Saylor, who has, you know, issued a lot of preferred and complex convertible financial instruments on top of it, which have kind of concentrated the ownership and the liquidity profile and now is kind of driving a market downturn."},"performance":{"entryPrice":126.99,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}}]}