{"version":"market-claims.v1","claim":{"id":"mcl_bfbcba8d3885c1b8cf","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_bfbcba8d3885c1b8cf","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The name most levered to nonstop AI capex gives back its premium as buildout spend outruns the actual revenue models can generate, with circular chip-vendor deals masking thin real demand.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"dwarkesh-sp","displayName":"Dwarkesh Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c3263695-7","url":"/trace/experts/dwarkesh-sp","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zgnSbu5GqE&t=365s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=_zgnSbu5GqE","timecode":"6:05","startMs":365000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"If the capabilities were actually at AGI level, people would be willing to spend trillions of dollars a year buying tokens that these models produce. Knowledge workers across the world cumulatively earn tens of trillions of dollars a year in wages. And the reason that labs are orders of magnitude off this figure right now is that the models are nowhere near as capable as human knowledge workers."},"performance":{"entryPrice":189.13,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"},"resolutionStatus":"OPEN","ambiguityNotes":null,"horizon":null,"isExplicitTrade":false,"notFinancialAdvice":true,"disclaimer":"AISO tracks public statements, not verified portfolio positions. This is not financial advice."},"expert":{"slug":"dwarkesh-sp","displayName":"Dwarkesh Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c3263695-7","url":"/trace/experts/dwarkesh-sp","claimed":false},"source":{"platform":"YOUTUBE","title":"What are we scaling?","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=_zgnSbu5GqE","publishedAt":"2025-12-23T20:28:52.000Z"},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zgnSbu5GqE&t=365s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=_zgnSbu5GqE","timecode":"6:05","startMs":365000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"If the capabilities were actually at AGI level, people would be willing to spend trillions of dollars a year buying tokens that these models produce. Knowledge workers across the world cumulatively earn tens of trillions of dollars a year in wages. And the reason that labs are orders of magnitude off this figure right now is that the models are nowhere near as capable as human knowledge workers.","quote":"If the capabilities were actually at AGI level, people would be willing to spend trillions of dollars a year buying tokens that these models produce. Knowledge workers across the world cumulatively earn tens of trillions of dollars a year in wages. And the reason that labs are orders of magnitude off this figure right now is that the models are nowhere near as capable as human knowledge workers.","speaker":"Dwarkesh Patel"},"entities":[{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"NVDA","name":"NVDA","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78}],"marketData":{"entry":{"price":189.13,"currency":"USD","observedAt":"2025-12-23T20:28:52.000Z","method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"},"current":null,"returnPct":null},"snapshots":[{"kind":"ENTRY","symbol":"NVDA","assetClass":"EQUITY","price":189.13,"probability":null,"currency":"USD","provider":"paste.trade","providerSymbol":"xyz:NVDA","observedAt":"2025-12-23T20:28:52.000Z","method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE","returnPct":null,"relativePct":null}]}