{"version":"market-claims.v1","claim":{"id":"mcl_a28d25e0da985a4578","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_a28d25e0da985a4578","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Crude rolls back off its war-spike highs as the Strait reopens and the UAE floods unquota'd barrels into a market with no matching demand, with US shale the first to crack.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"alexepstein","displayName":"Alex Epstein","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/79d30ea8-f","url":"/trace/experts/alexepstein","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"COMMODITY","symbol":"CL","name":"WTI","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5auUb1aY0sM&t=4811s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=5auUb1aY0sM","timecode":"80:11","startMs":4811000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Sure. So that's going to be the interesting— that's going to be interesting thing. The other interesting thing is, so if UAE stays out, here's one, if they stay out, they're going to increase production. Let's say on some timetable this Hormuz thing gets resolved, then it's plausible in the next few years at some point you'll have a supply cause you'll have added 1.5 million barrels a day on top of everything else, and you won't have a corresponding increase in demand, and you won't have some other decrease in supply."},"performance":{"entryPrice":99.909,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"},"resolutionStatus":"OPEN","ambiguityNotes":null,"horizon":null,"isExplicitTrade":false,"notFinancialAdvice":true,"disclaimer":"AISO tracks public statements, not verified portfolio positions. This is not financial advice."},"expert":{"slug":"alexepstein","displayName":"Alex Epstein","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/79d30ea8-f","url":"/trace/experts/alexepstein","claimed":false},"source":{"platform":"YOUTUBE","title":"Goblin-Mode, Jon Gray from Blackstone Joins, Alex Epstein on OPEC, Trial Progresses","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=5auUb1aY0sM","publishedAt":"2026-04-28T19:20:59.000Z"},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5auUb1aY0sM&t=4811s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=5auUb1aY0sM","timecode":"80:11","startMs":4811000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Sure. So that's going to be the interesting— that's going to be interesting thing. The other interesting thing is, so if UAE stays out, here's one, if they stay out, they're going to increase production. Let's say on some timetable this Hormuz thing gets resolved, then it's plausible in the next few years at some point you'll have a supply cause you'll have added 1.5 million barrels a day on top of everything else, and you won't have a corresponding increase in demand, and you won't have some other decrease in supply.","quote":"Sure. So that's going to be the interesting— that's going to be interesting thing. The other interesting thing is, so if UAE stays out, here's one, if they stay out, they're going to increase production. Let's say on some timetable this Hormuz thing gets resolved, then it's plausible in the next few years at some point you'll have a supply cause you'll have added 1.5 million barrels a day on top of everything else, and you won't have a corresponding increase in demand, and you won't have some other decrease in supply.","speaker":"Alex Epstein"},"entities":[{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"COMMODITY","symbol":"CL","name":"WTI","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78}],"marketData":{"entry":{"price":99.909,"currency":"USD","observedAt":"2026-04-28T19:20:59.000Z","method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"},"current":null,"returnPct":null},"snapshots":[{"kind":"ENTRY","symbol":"CL","assetClass":"COMMODITY","price":99.909,"probability":null,"currency":"USD","provider":"paste.trade","providerSymbol":"xyz:CL","observedAt":"2026-04-28T19:20:59.000Z","method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE","returnPct":null,"relativePct":null}]}