{"version":"market-claims.v1","claim":{"id":"mcl_51d49e37c8f41bca80","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_51d49e37c8f41bca80","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Solar gets 40% cheaper every time production doubles, and that pace is speeding up, so it becomes the cheapest way to fire-hose power at AI.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"dwarkesh-sp","displayName":"Dwarkesh Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c3263695-7","url":"/trace/experts/dwarkesh-sp","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"TAN","name":"TAN","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cDHx2_QbPE&t=1122s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=3cDHx2_QbPE","timecode":"18:42","startMs":1122000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"The learning rate for natural gas is nowhere near as steep as solar, which just tells you that it's easy to make solar panels, much easier to make solar panels. There are actually very few manufactured products which are easier to make. The Wright-Sawyer coefficient is 43%. So every time we double cumulative production, we get a 43% reduction in cost."},"performance":{"entryPrice":39.8400001526,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"},"resolutionStatus":"OPEN","ambiguityNotes":null,"horizon":"multi-year","isExplicitTrade":false,"notFinancialAdvice":true,"disclaimer":"AISO tracks public statements, not verified portfolio positions. This is not financial advice."},"expert":{"slug":"dwarkesh-sp","displayName":"Dwarkesh Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c3263695-7","url":"/trace/experts/dwarkesh-sp","claimed":false},"source":{"platform":"YOUTUBE","title":"China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=3cDHx2_QbPE","publishedAt":"2025-08-15T15:26:07.000Z"},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cDHx2_QbPE&t=1122s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=3cDHx2_QbPE","timecode":"18:42","startMs":1122000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"The learning rate for natural gas is nowhere near as steep as solar, which just tells you that it's easy to make solar panels, much easier to make solar panels. There are actually very few manufactured products which are easier to make. The Wright-Sawyer coefficient is 43%. So every time we double cumulative production, we get a 43% reduction in cost.","quote":"The learning rate for natural gas is nowhere near as steep as solar, which just tells you that it's easy to make solar panels, much easier to make solar panels. There are actually very few manufactured products which are easier to make. The Wright-Sawyer coefficient is 43%. So every time we double cumulative production, we get a 43% reduction in cost.","speaker":"Casey Handmer"},"entities":[{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"TAN","name":"TAN","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78}],"marketData":{"entry":{"price":39.8400001526,"currency":"USD","observedAt":"2025-08-15T15:26:07.000Z","method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"},"current":null,"returnPct":null},"snapshots":[{"kind":"ENTRY","symbol":"TAN","assetClass":"EQUITY","price":39.8400001526,"probability":null,"currency":"USD","provider":"paste.trade","providerSymbol":"TAN","observedAt":"2025-08-15T15:26:07.000Z","method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE","returnPct":null,"relativePct":null}]}