{"version":"market-claims.v1","claim":{"id":"mcl_31706077a97b52cb6a","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_31706077a97b52cb6a","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"European weapons makers keep winning record orders as the war refuses to end and the threat creeps toward the Baltics, with every member state racing to rearm for a decade.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"dwarkesh-sp","displayName":"Dwarkesh Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c3263695-7","url":"/trace/experts/dwarkesh-sp","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"EUAD","name":"EUAD","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw&t=3154s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw","timecode":"52:34","startMs":3154000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"it turns out that Putin, Russia is much more vulnerable to blockade than the other way around, 'cause it's very easy to, close up the Baltic and Black Seas."},"performance":{"entryPrice":42.3300018311,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"},"resolutionStatus":"OPEN","ambiguityNotes":null,"horizon":null,"isExplicitTrade":false,"notFinancialAdvice":true,"disclaimer":"AISO tracks public statements, not verified portfolio positions. This is not financial advice."},"expert":{"slug":"dwarkesh-sp","displayName":"Dwarkesh Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c3263695-7","url":"/trace/experts/dwarkesh-sp","claimed":false},"source":{"platform":"YOUTUBE","title":"Sarah Paine – How Hitler almost starved Britain","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw","publishedAt":"2025-09-05T15:31:41.000Z"},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw&t=3154s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=SdMgOXfSBQw","timecode":"52:34","startMs":3154000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"it turns out that Putin, Russia is much more vulnerable to blockade than the other way around, 'cause it's very easy to, close up the Baltic and Black Seas.","quote":"it turns out that Putin, Russia is much more vulnerable to blockade than the other way around, 'cause it's very easy to, close up the Baltic and Black Seas.","speaker":"Sarah Paine"},"entities":[{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"EUAD","name":"EUAD","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78}],"marketData":{"entry":{"price":42.3300018311,"currency":"USD","observedAt":"2025-09-05T15:31:41.000Z","method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"},"current":null,"returnPct":null},"snapshots":[{"kind":"ENTRY","symbol":"EUAD","assetClass":"EQUITY","price":42.3300018311,"probability":null,"currency":"USD","provider":"paste.trade","providerSymbol":"EUAD","observedAt":"2025-09-05T15:31:41.000Z","method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE","returnPct":null,"relativePct":null}]}