{"version":"market-claims.v1","claim":{"id":"mcl_1b875f7c45b368e172","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_1b875f7c45b368e172","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The US is 1000% going bankrupt without an AI and robotics growth miracle, because interest on the national debt already costs more than the entire trillion-dollar military budget.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"dwarkesh-sp","displayName":"Dwarkesh Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c3263695-7","url":"/trace/experts/dwarkesh-sp","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"ETF","symbol":"TLT","name":"TLT","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYXbuik3dgA&t=8428s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=BYXbuik3dgA","timecode":"140:28","startMs":8428000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the interest payments to the national debt exceed the military budget, which is a trillion dollars. So over a trillion dollars just in interest payments."},"performance":{"entryPrice":87.4800033569,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"},"resolutionStatus":"OPEN","ambiguityNotes":null,"horizon":"multi-year","isExplicitTrade":false,"notFinancialAdvice":true,"disclaimer":"AISO tracks public statements, not verified portfolio positions. This is not financial advice."},"expert":{"slug":"dwarkesh-sp","displayName":"Dwarkesh Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c3263695-7","url":"/trace/experts/dwarkesh-sp","claimed":false},"source":{"platform":"YOUTUBE","title":"Elon Musk – \"In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=BYXbuik3dgA","publishedAt":"2026-02-05T17:02:28.000Z"},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYXbuik3dgA&t=8428s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=BYXbuik3dgA","timecode":"140:28","startMs":8428000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the interest payments to the national debt exceed the military budget, which is a trillion dollars. So over a trillion dollars just in interest payments.","quote":"the interest payments to the national debt exceed the military budget, which is a trillion dollars. So over a trillion dollars just in interest payments.","speaker":"Elon Musk"},"entities":[{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"ETF","symbol":"TLT","name":"TLT","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78}],"marketData":{"entry":{"price":87.4800033569,"currency":"USD","observedAt":"2026-02-05T17:02:28.000Z","method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"},"current":null,"returnPct":null},"snapshots":[{"kind":"ENTRY","symbol":"TLT","assetClass":"ETF","price":87.4800033569,"probability":null,"currency":"USD","provider":"paste.trade","providerSymbol":"TLT","observedAt":"2026-02-05T17:02:28.000Z","method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE","returnPct":null,"relativePct":null}]}