{"version":"market-claims.v1","asset":{"symbol":"LLY","name":"LLY","assetClass":"EQUITY"},"claims":[{"id":"mcl_f1f9020f53bfc282c6","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_f1f9020f53bfc282c6","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Lilly just got a real oral weight-loss pill approved while copycats sell an oral version with zero human studies and a RICO lawsuit hanging over it.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"LLY","name":"LLY","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrnhYB2uIA8&t=6072s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=wrnhYB2uIA8","timecode":"101:12","startMs":6072000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"The day before this article ran, the day before, Lilly's oral got approved. 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Amazon's actually almost up 5% today. Yeah. And I would, I would expect that to be because of the letter. But people tend to buy a lot of GLP-1 drugs, too."},"performance":{"entryPrice":959.24,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_4d49cb21090f6622df","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_4d49cb21090f6622df","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"A GLP-1 maker re-rated as a longevity franchise, not a weight-loss fad: organ-wide benefits and a next-gen oral pill stretch the paying patient pool far past obesity for the class leader.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"peterdiamandis","displayName":"Peter H. 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And part of it is we know that if you are metabolically unhealthy, if you're carrying too much visceral fat, if you're carrying too much fat on your body, that shortens your life."},"performance":{"entryPrice":930.36,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_79fd9f3abd1d8825d3","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_79fd9f3abd1d8825d3","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Cheaper GLP-1s and a new oral pill turn falling prices into a flood of new prescriptions, and the maker holding over 60% of the US obesity market rides that volume even as headline prices drop.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"LLY","name":"LLY","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=idl0LudHDDY&t=4293s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=idl0LudHDDY","timecode":"71:33","startMs":4293000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"But it's also worse for the system because now we've spent all this money for medications and then had rebound weight gain or falling off medication or so on."},"performance":{"entryPrice":1014.5,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_df086566372a6f0cf4","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_df086566372a6f0cf4","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The $51 billion blockbuster behind this trillion-dollar drugmaker loses 90 to 95% of its price the day it goes off patent, and generics eat the rest.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"LLY","name":"LLY","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2rfOGHIQxt4&t=5611s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=2rfOGHIQxt4","timecode":"93:31","startMs":5611000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"So Lilly today is— Lilly today is a $1 trillion company, right? 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Lilly's just-approved oral pill Foundayo is the form factor he says leapfrogs the injection and lets the market scale.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"LLY","name":"LLY","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=b5p40OuTTW4&t=1900s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=b5p40OuTTW4","timecode":"31:40","startMs":1900000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"we're going to take the prices of these drugs, which are now prohibitively high for many Americans, $1,200 cash pay... It's going to be a starting price of around $200... And with the pills, it's 150. And the pills will come out the the first FDA approved pills will start this month... we believe at that price... within two years, return money to the American taxpayer... we agreed to those prices with the two major companies, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly."},"performance":{"entryPrice":1066.4274385741,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_2ba39d06d8891113ab","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_2ba39d06d8891113ab","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"GLP-1 drugs were the first mass longevity/abundance shift; the category keeps compounding","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"LLY","name":"LLY","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Axpnkqd-Agk&t=2003s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=Axpnkqd-Agk","timecode":"33:23","startMs":2003000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I think we'll look back and we'll see GLP-1s as the first big drop. 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And that starts to become sort of like the upgrade to the BMW or the Model S plat if you will."},"performance":{"entryPrice":965.5,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_9b5b48077734eb05c4","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_9b5b48077734eb05c4","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Chamath counters that the deepest incumbency moat is a regulated drugmaker, since FDA-trial timelines and biologics manufacturing cannot be disrupted by software the way distribution can. 'The regulated pharma company' has no ticker, so the cleanest large-cap expression of that incumbency-moat long is Eli Lilly.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"LLY","name":"LLY","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtu.be/4oq91rzQcO8?t=4491s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=4oq91rzQcO8","timecode":"1:14:51","startMs":4491000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"[Jason] I'm going to take Boeing. [Chamath] Good luck making drugs out of an Excel spreadsheet. I'll take the regulated pharma company. Good luck, sir."},"performance":{"entryPrice":1096.6650390625,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}}]}