{"version":"market-claims.v1","asset":{"symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","assetClass":"EQUITY"},"claims":[{"id":"mcl_5b7644e9a9660fd838","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_5b7644e9a9660fd838","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Salesforce keeps posting double-digit growth now, but big customers are openly planning two-year exits to free cash for GPUs, and the per-seat model gets squeezed as AI agents do the work.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"theethanding","displayName":"Ethan Ding","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/4a762b80-7","url":"/trace/experts/theethanding","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyXxasva-rQ&t=3830s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=gyXxasva-rQ","timecode":"63:50","startMs":3830000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Yeah. How have you been processing the SaaSpocalypse narrative? Uh, Benioff was given some pushback. Uh, other folks were very bullish on it. There's a whole bunch of different data points. I've been just shocked that, uh, We haven't seen revenue declines from really any software company that's been targeted, although, you know, you could talk about the long term, but slowing growth, the growth like these companies are still growing even if they are in like the direct path of the AI companies."},"performance":{"entryPrice":185.7649993896,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_41b5810fc216e4d2fd","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_41b5810fc216e4d2fd","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The SaaSpocalypse hasn't shown up in the numbers, Salesforce revenue is reaccelerating from 8.7% to 10.8%, and customers aren't ripping it out for AI.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyXxasva-rQ&t=375s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=gyXxasva-rQ","timecode":"6:15","startMs":375000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Benioff thinks the bears have it wrong about the SaaSpocalypse thesis generally, and especially about Salesforce. AI, he says, is making Salesforce more valuable to its customers than ever."},"performance":{"entryPrice":186.8099975586,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_32ab3d3c98a20ac9e0","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_32ab3d3c98a20ac9e0","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Salesforce is the short here, because if anyone can build the software they need in a few hours, the old seat-by-seat SaaS giants lose their grip.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"ngavini","displayName":"Naveen Gavini","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/6c58d81e-4","url":"/trace/experts/ngavini","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i83KOz2w_xg&t=6170s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=i83KOz2w_xg","timecode":"102:50","startMs":6170000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I believe in shorting SaaS if I can. That's probably what I believe in right now."},"performance":{"entryPrice":189.4900054932,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_ca81a3fede8df8c2d9","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_ca81a3fede8df8c2d9","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Salesforce keeps sliding as AI agents gut the seat-based licensing model and a new wave of AI-native CRM upstarts chip at the system-of-record moat that justified its premium.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"doombergt","displayName":"Doomberg","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c1bc48db-6","url":"/trace/experts/doombergt","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-XroYgyoNuU&t=4955s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=-XroYgyoNuU","timecode":"82:35","startMs":4955000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Yeah. I think there are 3 things that come to mind that differentiate Monaco relative to anything else in the market. And the third one is sort of the like—"},"performance":{"entryPrice":170.6849975586,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_e6e5c30f734024fbbf","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_e6e5c30f734024fbbf","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Salesforce is on the wrong side of AI. Its front-facing tools go head to head with the models instead of feeding them, so it has a harder road than the database players.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"altcap","displayName":"Brad Gerstner","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/746364e2-3","url":"/trace/experts/altcap","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQVwLUxFdMY&t=7461s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=sQVwLUxFdMY","timecode":"124:21","startMs":7461000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the front-facing solutions that they offer are more competitive with the models than something like Snowflake. Snowflake's the enabler of the models, whereas I think that Salesforce competes a bit more. So it's going to be more challenging."},"performance":{"entryPrice":191.0200042725,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_35fa0fac142d00b747","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_35fa0fac142d00b747","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Demand is higher than ever, so we hired almost 20% more salespeople while AI let us freeze engineers and cut service staff, the SaaS death story is wrong.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"benioff","displayName":"Mark Benioff","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/4d11cad4-9","url":"/trace/experts/benioff","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRiUmjsSxRU&t=3425s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=mRiUmjsSxRU","timecode":"57:05","startMs":3425000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I'm not hiring more engineers in fiscal year, you know, '26... because I was using coding agents... And I didn't hire more service agents in the year. I held it flat and then reduced it slightly because I'm using service agents."},"performance":{"entryPrice":209.9615020752,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_c538b22bcea2be5751","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_c538b22bcea2be5751","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The golden SaaS model breaks when AI piles on heavy running costs, sales stays expensive, and customers can just build it themselves.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAIVualeQjM&t=7099s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=kAIVualeQjM","timecode":"118:19","startMs":7099000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"now you add this AI part of it, you've now added a humongous COGS, right? Your cost of goods sold in any AI software is really hard and really big."},"performance":{"entryPrice":245.1000061035,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_a0e4ca122e0842fb9b","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_a0e4ca122e0842fb9b","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Salesforce is a painful form-checker that AI is built to replace, since a proactive assistant pulling new unstructured data could finally rip it out of companies.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZB-0TVRsO8&t=4284s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=cZB-0TVRsO8","timecode":"71:24","startMs":4284000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Take salesforce.com... What do people do in salesforce.com? It's basically like a sophisticated form checker with some analysis. And it's brutal. It's painful to use. The future with AI is not going to be anything like that."},"performance":{"entryPrice":232.8300018311,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_ab44049194154458e3","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_ab44049194154458e3","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"SaaS giants are guarding their fat margins instead of running AI agents, which guarantees they lose, exactly the mistake retailers made with e-commerce.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmUo4841KQw&t=4271s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=cmUo4841KQw","timecode":"71:11","startMs":4271000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"And that's exactly what the SaaS companies are doing. They have their 70%, 80%, 90% gross margins, and they are reluctant to accept AI gross margins."},"performance":{"entryPrice":259.5299987793,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_ef81e12e3be9eb54e9","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_ef81e12e3be9eb54e9","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Slack sits in a precarious spot because its chat data goes stale fast, so it is easy to rebuild a copy and drain its value, while the real customer records underneath are safer.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUsb1FYOstA&t=890s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=JUsb1FYOstA","timecode":"14:50","startMs":890000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Slack has done it most publicly. Slack is owned by Salesforce. They cut off access to Glean, where Glean can no longer access Slack data. And the reason is they don't want Glean to build on top of them and then slowly suck out the value that Slack has."},"performance":{"entryPrice":227.9600067139,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_8ddd471cf7d0b37fb6","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_8ddd471cf7d0b37fb6","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Salesforce is way harder to kill than the market thinks, even with AI; ripping it out is brutal heavy lifting, and the panic selling overshoots.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ID27juNvAfc&t=457s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ID27juNvAfc","timecode":"7:37","startMs":457000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I, I think people are kind of overreacting to that in the stock market and so forth. And that if you look at existing software companies, like people think, oh, they're all dead. Well, some of these guys are extremely hard targets. Like, uh, it's not that easy to take out Salesforce or SAP."},"performance":{"entryPrice":210.8099975586,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_4d92b0fda6173d5667","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_4d92b0fda6173d5667","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Legacy enterprise software is getting gutted, weak AI products, budgets diverted to AI tokens, no more price hikes, and AI-native rivals that could obviate their data advantage.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZt1DDmMNGk&t=2478s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=DZt1DDmMNGk","timecode":"41:18","startMs":2478000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"We basically sold almost all of our software, almost all of our application software. We still have one or two small ones, but entering this year we were actually net, net short. And it really helped us in the first quarter."},"performance":{"entryPrice":182.5500030518,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_9ece7f004e857ded0d","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_9ece7f004e857ded0d","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Gerstner's call is not that Salesforce dies but that its valuation re-rates permanently lower as the agentic layer captures the profit pool the app layer used to own. The stake is on the multiple, roughly halving from 30x to 17x free cash flow, not on revenue collapsing.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=wTiHheA40nI&t=1675s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=wTiHheA40nI","timecode":"27:55","startMs":1675000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"It could be true that you're not going to replace CRM, but it can also be true that it's never going to trade at 30 times free cash flow again. And it's going to trade at 17 times free cash flow because it's available in the future is now dramatically and permanently changed."},"performance":{"entryPrice":191.3500061035,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_0b7ba85ad05b72817f","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_0b7ba85ad05b72817f","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Sacks expects Salesforce to survive but sees AI compressing its growth and possibly breaking the per-seat pricing model, which is a mild bearish lean on the growth multiple rather than a solvency short. The link is that a slower-growth, AI-pressured CRM should trade at a lower forward multiple even if revenue holds.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzWbCF_IkHY&t=774s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=kzWbCF_IkHY","timecode":"12:54","startMs":774000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I don't think AI is going to get rid of Salesforce, but it could eat into their growth opportunity. We just don't know. What if it changes the pricing model?"},"performance":{"entryPrice":194.7899932861,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_80336803068c72f64d","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_80336803068c72f64d","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"At under 10x FCF with Benioff going headless on agents, Salesforce looks like a bargain in the SaaS wreck","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=1bCXCxrDsCs&t=1952s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=1bCXCxrDsCs","timecode":"32:32","startMs":1952000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"By the way, Salesforce today is down 9%. 140 billion enterprise value on 15 billion of free cash flow. This thing is trading at less than 10 times free cash flow. It's unbelievable."},"performance":{"entryPrice":178.1600036621,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_4f6f8a77e37f7771df","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_4f6f8a77e37f7771df","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Benioff is funding one of the largest buybacks in history into a 37% drawdown, a CEO putting balance sheet behind the view that the SaaSpocalypse selloff overshot. Chamath independently calls the high-end monoliths oversold and due to re-rate up.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"benioff","displayName":"Mark Benioff","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/4d11cad4-9","url":"/trace/experts/benioff","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=jJRAvZNGUvI&t=2315s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=jJRAvZNGUvI","timecode":"38:35","startMs":2315000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"we want to buy back as much as we can. ... I've bought some great companies, by the way. Everything's a little cheaper. I like that."},"performance":{"entryPrice":173.5399932861,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_cf5569c5f6d6921991","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_cf5569c5f6d6921991","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Ackman singles out Salesforce as the kind of high-priced enterprise software whose monopolistic per-customer pricing is exposed as AI lets buyers self-serve, versus low-priced platforms like Microsoft he sees as safe. The stake is a directional negative on Salesforce specifically.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtu.be/_TJFqEhxQg4&t=417s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=_TJFqEhxQg4%26t%3D417s","timecode":"6:57","startMs":417000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I worry more about a salesforce um than I do about your kind of um I think you got to do the work... when someone had a kind of a niche software product, they're charging, you know, 30,000 a year or something like this. I think those companies are really at risk."},"performance":{"entryPrice":190.9550018311,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_df3bb82dbe4b0aa9a3","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_df3bb82dbe4b0aa9a3","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Analytical SaaS is dead: LLMs run queries directly on data, killing the incremental-module sales model.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"CRM","name":"CRM","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=hObRMv6qCi0&t=428s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=hObRMv6qCi0","timecode":"7:08","startMs":428000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"If you're an analytical SaaS company, it's over."},"performance":{"entryPrice":185.6600036621,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}}]}