{"version":"market-claims.v1","asset":{"symbol":"COIN","name":"COIN","assetClass":"EQUITY"},"claims":[{"id":"mcl_fc7a436295605ea2a4","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_fc7a436295605ea2a4","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"ThreadGuy questions how low Coinbase goes after calling it the worst earnings ever and says he sees no reason to hold the exchange stocks except IBKR. That is a bearish lean on COIN.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"COIN","name":"COIN","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2767294194?t=2369s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2767294194","timecode":"39:29","startMs":2369000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"by the way, how low does Coinbase stock go? I am... I want Brian in the stream, so I'll refrain."},"performance":{"entryPrice":197.9199981689,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_daf699bc79ca8452c1","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_daf699bc79ca8452c1","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"SEC innovation exemption legalizing tokenized stocks is a structural win for crypto trading rails","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"COIN","name":"COIN","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2775249215?t=5259s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2775249215","timecode":"87:39","startMs":5259000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"SEC said to lean toward allowing third-party tokenized stocks without issuer consent. Is that Hyper could go up on that? Wow, what a fucking announcement. That seems insanely big."},"performance":{"entryPrice":189.04,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_3086c111673a3c514b","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_3086c111673a3c514b","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"CFTC just cleared the first US Bitcoin perp and Coinbase is the registered venue to list it","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"COIN","name":"COIN","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2783912075?t=5252s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2783912075","timecode":"87:32","startMs":5252000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"JB estimated $2.8 billion... I fuck with the Brian Armstrong mission, I'm not gonna lie."},"performance":{"entryPrice":188.51,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_1f45a395d6239b8738","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_1f45a395d6239b8738","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The biggest US-regulated exchange becomes the toll booth for liquidity coming home, capturing both trading flow and stablecoin growth as Washington turns friendly and offshore venues bleed.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"cz-binance","displayName":"Changpeng Zhao","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/daf3a799-e","url":"/trace/experts/cz-binance","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"COIN","name":"COIN","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfJFeqhfkuI&t=8180s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=DfJFeqhfkuI","timecode":"136:20","startMs":8180000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Yeah, I think America for the last few years before the Trump administration was fairly anti-crypto. So many of the founders left, many of the projects left, and many of the liquidity left. The biggest crypto exchanges are not in America today. The biggest blockchains, the biggest stablecoins, they're not not America-based. So I think America misses that liquidity quite a bit. America right now has very forward-looking regulations, and now people flocking back."},"performance":{"entryPrice":169.95,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7da54cc6f676459546","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7da54cc6f676459546","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Stablecoin and custody fees keep cash flowing for Coinbase even as speculative trading volumes collapse, so the institutional rails layer holds up while token markets bleed out in the consolidation phase.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"jasonyanowitz","displayName":"Jason Yanowitz","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/eb353316-5","url":"/trace/experts/jasonyanowitz","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"COIN","name":"COIN","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=io49HEZheTQ&t=2989s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=io49HEZheTQ","timecode":"49:49","startMs":2989000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Yeah, you have two dichotomies happening in crypto. One is institutional crypto has never been better, right? You have Jamie Dimon used to call crypto, you know, a scam. And now, you know, JPMorgan's pushing into tokenization and, you know, they're going to start custody in crypto and stuff like that. So institutional markets are ripping and the token markets suck, basically. And the other thing that's happening is— and I have a bunch of thoughts on why tokens are down only essentially, you know, And they are."},"performance":{"entryPrice":180.9,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_b817925462ce77cfdd","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_b817925462ce77cfdd","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Coinbase gets two engines as machines start paying in stablecoins: a cut of USDC plus its x402 rail on Base, the standard agents are settling on at machine speed.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"COIN","name":"COIN","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T6ZRmi7Iwzc&t=4627s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=T6ZRmi7Iwzc","timecode":"77:07","startMs":4627000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"But it was this like brand new platform shift in payments tied to an external platform shift. Our, our view is that stablecoins represented another platform shift in payments, and I think AI could be the corresponding one that helps drive adoption of stablecoins. And I think that all the payment problems that we're solving now are like fiat payment problems, and there's big markets and so on. But I think the much bigger market will be, you know, the new means of payment that are going to be required in these agentic services."},"performance":{"entryPrice":187.13,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_09939122304b52a3dd","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_09939122304b52a3dd","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Regulated crypto exchange equity reprices higher as Congress hands the industry its first federal rulebook and the $270T securities market starts migrating onto blockchain rails.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"thomasfarley","displayName":"Tom Farley","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/70888da9-5","url":"/trace/experts/thomasfarley","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"COIN","name":"COIN","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziKGZlxghSU&t=5041s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ziKGZlxghSU","timecode":"84:01","startMs":5041000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"And now in the U.S., not just with Genius, which is the state that, you know, it ratifies stablecoins, kind of gives them papal blessing. But hopefully the Crypto— the Clarity Act, we can talk about how to handicap that. But if that gets passed, that, that'll be perhaps the biggest regulatory or legislative step ever And so I am very, very optimistic that I come on this show a decade from now and the global securities market is— it's on blockchain rails."},"performance":{"entryPrice":163.07,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_142081c2bcc98949ba","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_142081c2bcc98949ba","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Coinbase revenue is decelerating hard as the crowd ditches buying tokens like Solana to pile into B2B stocks instead.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"goodalexander","displayName":"goodalexander","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/33a586b6-f","url":"/trace/experts/goodalexander","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"COIN","name":"COIN","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziKGZlxghSU&t=9193s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ziKGZlxghSU","timecode":"153:13","startMs":9193000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"You know, if you look at Coinbase, it's like got substantial sequential revenue deceleration. So, you know, people are not investing in Solana, they're, they're investing in HPE. And so, you know, the sort of B2B focus of the markets has completely changed."},"performance":{"entryPrice":163.02,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_d8e1d311121087bb70","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_d8e1d311121087bb70","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Everything illiquid is heading toward 24/7 trading, with private funds getting tokenized on blockchain and even stock-backed tokens going live.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"COIN","name":"COIN","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17bGyLB00s0&t=2013s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=17bGyLB00s0","timecode":"33:33","startMs":2013000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"we have a high-level view that all assets are going to get more liquid over time. And so the question is, what's that going to do to returns and what's that going to do to volatility of those returns"},"performance":{"entryPrice":246.7755529787,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_898a2550c15d6fc689","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_898a2550c15d6fc689","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Armstrong names the three trends he is building Coinbase around (all assets on-chain, prediction markets, stablecoin payments), and Coinbase is the one listed pure-play that monetizes every one of those rails. The non-obvious link is that these are not generic crypto trends but Coinbase's own 2026 roadmap, so betting the trends is mechanically a long COIN bet.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"COIN","name":"COIN","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=-yrLEKjMyrM&t=943s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=-yrLEKjMyrM","timecode":"15:43","startMs":943000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I think that yeah, the biggest trends are all assets are coming on chain for trading. Um prediction markets are growing like crazy and stable coin payments are growing like crazy. Those are the probably the three biggest trends in crypto right now."},"performance":{"entryPrice":218.1,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_04f8c967f576922689","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_04f8c967f576922689","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Genius Act level playing field plus accelerating USDC network effects pull the whole regulated crypto rail up","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"COIN","name":"COIN","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=w2BqPnVKVo4&t=1774s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=w2BqPnVKVo4","timecode":"29:34","startMs":1774000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Coinbase has it. Revolut has it. You know, banks have it. Visa's using it. Every time someone adds it, you know, Stripe merchants, Shopify merchants can use it."},"performance":{"entryPrice":216.15,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_4278a8fc7ebe098889","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_4278a8fc7ebe098889","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"EXPLICIT_LONG","direction":"LONG","claimText":"like AxelR was bought by Coinbase kind of rugged everybody, right?","confidence":0.82,"expert":{"slug":"threadguy","displayName":"ThreadGuy","kind":"UNKNOWN","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":null,"url":"/trace/experts/threadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"COIN","name":"Coinbase","exchange":null,"confidence":0.9},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPQPaB6_2c0&t=1033","sourceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPQPaB6_2c0","timecode":"17:13","startMs":1033199,"endMs":1035270,"excerpt":"like AxelR was bought by Coinbase kind like AxelR was bought by Coinbase kind of rugged everybody, right? Like no more of rugged everybody, right? Like no more"},"performance":{"entryPrice":null,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":null}},{"id":"mcl_a6fb00b9d04d04a61c","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_a6fb00b9d04d04a61c","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"EXPLICIT_LONG","direction":"LONG","claimText":"like AxelR was bought by Coinbase kind","confidence":0.82,"expert":{"slug":"threadguy","displayName":"ThreadGuy","kind":"UNKNOWN","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":null,"url":"/trace/experts/threadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"COIN","name":"Coinbase","exchange":null,"confidence":0.9},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPQPaB6_2c0&t=1033","sourceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPQPaB6_2c0","timecode":"17:13","startMs":1033189,"endMs":1033199,"excerpt":"right? Um, what was the one deal where like AxelR was bought by Coinbase kind like AxelR was bought by Coinbase kind like AxelR was bought by Coinbase kind of rugged everybody, right? Like no more"},"performance":{"entryPrice":null,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":null}},{"id":"mcl_2088a8e131002b1d2b","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_2088a8e131002b1d2b","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"EXPLICIT_LONG","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Um, what was the one deal where like AxelR was bought by Coinbase kind","confidence":0.82,"expert":{"slug":"threadguy","displayName":"ThreadGuy","kind":"UNKNOWN","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":null,"url":"/trace/experts/threadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"COIN","name":"Coinbase","exchange":null,"confidence":0.9},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPQPaB6_2c0&t=1030","sourceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPQPaB6_2c0","timecode":"17:10","startMs":1030799,"endMs":1033189,"excerpt":"right? Um, what was the one deal where right? Um, what was the one deal where like AxelR was bought by Coinbase kind like AxelR was bought by Coinbase kind"},"performance":{"entryPrice":null,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":null}}]}