{"version":"market-claims.v1","asset":{"symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","assetClass":"CRYPTO"},"claims":[{"id":"mcl_30fce586fc4e782e0e","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_30fce586fc4e782e0e","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"BTC has no marginal bidder outside Saylor; uninspiring here despite holding a big spot position.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2758570970?t=553s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2758570970","timecode":"9:13","startMs":553000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"There's no bidder outside of Saylor right now. There's just not. Long BTC, it could have just got an entry on literally anything else, didn't do it."},"performance":{"entryPrice":76958,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-15.236882,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_50dbb2e1e724194d25","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_50dbb2e1e724194d25","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Crypto apathy at 2019/2022-style lows sets up asymmetric upside concentrated in a few assets; Bitcoin reprices.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2760135165?t=8899s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2760135165","timecode":"148:19","startMs":8899000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the concentration of upside in a handful of assets will make it easier to generate massive returns. There is less capital looking at crypto exposure than ever before. This all changes with the rapid repricing of Bitcoin this year, which I believe is inevitable."},"performance":{"entryPrice":75933,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-14.092687,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_138338713800244a21","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_138338713800244a21","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Short crypto into range highs; BTC/ETH/SOL stretched while crypto tracks gold not equities.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tolks","displayName":"tolks","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/1e94db4c-4","url":"/trace/experts/tolks","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2760135165?t=6039s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2760135165","timecode":"100:39","startMs":6039000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I'm just short of BTC, ETH, and SOL right now."},"performance":{"entryPrice":75789,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":13.929462,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_95710225ee75499eb1","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_95710225ee75499eb1","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"He sells Iran-war/oil risk by shorting crypto rather than equities since crypto is the cleanest bearish expression.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2760135165?t=1584s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2760135165","timecode":"26:24","startMs":1584000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I made a tweet today and said the best way to express being bearish equities is to just short crypto"},"performance":{"entryPrice":75492,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":13.590844,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7f083864d0ff66c855","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7f083864d0ff66c855","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Long Bitcoin is a safer expression of short oil into a war ceasefire than shorting oil outright","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2761765658?t=2937s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2761765658","timecode":"48:57","startMs":2937000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"somebody asked me, they wanted a short oil, and I told them I think a better expression of short oil is long Bitcoin, if you remember that. And I don't know if that was true, but I said it's a safer expression is long BTC."},"performance":{"entryPrice":77945,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-16.310219,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_921f94e34861833a6c","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_921f94e34861833a6c","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Bitcoin best risk asset; Saylor's new money printer plus war hedge means a move to 97k takes nothing","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2764207002?t=4359s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2764207002","timecode":"72:39","startMs":4359000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"a move to this yellow line, 97, would take fucking nothing. Okay, Bitcoin's worth $1.6 trillion. Google added $500 billion in one session, bro. That would be Bitcoin to 100+ tomorrow."},"performance":{"entryPrice":79882,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-18.339551,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_15ff68ec65c5db276d","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_15ff68ec65c5db276d","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Bitcoin coiling and needs a volume pop; break of 83-85K ignites the reflexive crypto move","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2764966342?t=2656s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2764966342","timecode":"44:16","startMs":2656000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Bitcoin is ready to pop, Zcash is ready to double... we need 85K, 83K sweep. We really need it, we need it bad."},"performance":{"entryPrice":81668,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-20.125386,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_d6456b982385f4234e","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_d6456b982385f4234e","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Bitcoin's chart is pathetic relative to stocks; uninspiring price action holds crypto back despite holding 33% of net worth","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2765747470?t=3388s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2765747470","timecode":"56:28","startMs":3388000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"33% of my net worth is in Bitcoin. It's the chart's pathetic. This chart is a joke. It's pathetic."},"performance":{"entryPrice":81323,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-19.78653,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_5f86eb0a1fc10b05b5","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_5f86eb0a1fc10b05b5","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Host's cycle bet: BTC dominance down-only, BTC ranges while alts rip on its worst-ever narrative","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2767294194?t=2915s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2767294194","timecode":"48:35","startMs":2915000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Bitcoin dominance, which is my bet by the way for this cycle, is if there is a new crypto cycle Bitcoin dominance goes down only."},"performance":{"entryPrice":80216,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":18.679565,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_a6cc2a52b03399828b","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_a6cc2a52b03399828b","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"ThreadGuy is long Bitcoin with size and a tight stop, saying the chart looks good and he will sit in the trade even while admitting no high-conviction edge.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2769661202?t=1220s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2769661202","timecode":"20:20","startMs":1220000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I click into like a really tight, a really tight BTC long, like a tight stop loss... I actually think BTC looks pretty good. I'm gonna sit in it because, I don't know, it's a lot of fucking size."},"performance":{"entryPrice":81868,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-20.320516,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_d73c578c278cbe9af1","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_d73c578c278cbe9af1","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Air Mass is a diehard Bitcoin permabull who never sells, holds every coin from $1K to $120K, and expects today's $80K price to look like $1 a decade from now. He believes the price itself drives the narrative once demand overtakes supply.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"the-airmass","displayName":"Air Mass","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/30707553-8","url":"/trace/experts/the-airmass","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2772001960?t=5041s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2772001960","timecode":"84:01","startMs":5041000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"As for Bitcoin, nothing has changed. I never sell. Still holding every Bitcoin I bought from $1K all the way up to $120K."},"performance":{"entryPrice":81274,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-19.73817,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_10180cd64ebd891667","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_10180cd64ebd891667","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"ThreadGuy holds a lot of spot Bitcoin and is constructively biased, framing weakness as acceptable and a $60-70K range as a likely bottom rather than a top. He endorses Taiki's bottomed-near-60K thesis.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2776023214?t=2175s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2776023214","timecode":"36:15","startMs":2175000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Bitcoin looks fine, everything else looks fucking great, really is how I feel."},"performance":{"entryPrice":76927,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-15.202725,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_58432592ec233d21bf","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_58432592ec233d21bf","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"ThreadGuy says he remains a Bitcoin bull, holds spot, and reads the chart as a higher low that looks ready to break upside.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2776804031?t=1794s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2776804031","timecode":"29:54","startMs":1794000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I remain a Bitcoin bull here, but ideally you would like to see Bitcoin print a fuck you candle"},"performance":{"entryPrice":77725,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-16.073335,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_2bac37e3e773024974","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_2bac37e3e773024974","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"ThreadGuy stays a structural Bitcoin bull, arguing it struggles to make new lows and that alt longs require BTC to hold or rise.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2777582358?t=2275s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2777582358","timecode":"37:55","startMs":2275000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I remain a bull on BTC. I think at the very least you just want to see it chop or go up... I think you have to be a bull here, especially if you're long alts or anything."},"performance":{"entryPrice":77678,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-16.022555,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_cd1fa9a24fa1216498","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_cd1fa9a24fa1216498","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"ThreadGuy is openly bearish Bitcoin near term, calling the candle disgusting and saying he'd rather hold bonds than his spot BTC. He sees no near-term catalyst to push it higher.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2781566659?t=1791s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2781566659","timecode":"29:51","startMs":1791000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"this candle that Bitcoin put in today was one of the most disgusting candles I've ever seen."},"performance":{"entryPrice":75997,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":14.165033,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_22a5055cc9665b0847","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_22a5055cc9665b0847","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Despite putting ~90% odds on quantum eventually breaking Bitcoin encryption by 2035, Nic Carter has not sold a single coin and continues holding through the rage-quit wave. His operative position is long.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"nic-carter","displayName":"Nic Carter","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":null,"url":"/trace/experts/nic-carter","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2782345952?t=6879s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2782345952","timecode":"114:39","startMs":6879000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Have you sold any Bitcoin? No. Still no. I know this is like, there's a lot of rage quits happening."},"performance":{"entryPrice":74605,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-12.563501,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_ea7556afd34d40a6d3","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_ea7556afd34d40a6d3","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"ThreadGuy is bearish Bitcoin, citing rage capitulation, opportunity cost vs AI names, quantum risk, and forced Saylor selling, expecting new lows below $60K.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2787072268?t=1720s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2787072268","timecode":"28:40","startMs":1720000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I think it's rage capitulation and I don't think we're done. I think new lows are back on the table here. It wouldn't take much to get us below $60K."},"performance":{"entryPrice":67291,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":3.059845,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_201cf081d2a1e00c7e","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_201cf081d2a1e00c7e","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Tulip King is structurally long-term bullish Bitcoin, calling it destiny to a million and the hardest most secure money ever invented, even while trimming tactically. The directional view is long.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tulipking","displayName":"Tulip King","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/3348934b-c","url":"/trace/experts/tulipking","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2787867857?t=9774s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2787867857","timecode":"162:54","startMs":9774000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"it remains the same. Like, this is like, it is the like hardest, most secure asset. It is like resistant to like political forces to screw it."},"performance":{"entryPrice":65135,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":0.148921,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_8ea77b3924647d44e3","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_8ea77b3924647d44e3","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Saylor selling nothing flips the bull case on its head; the no-sell pump makes BTC an interesting contrarian buy.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2791923393?t=2312s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2791923393","timecode":"38:32","startMs":2312000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"in a way, it's sort of healing that Saylor sells nothing. He actually bought, and then we pump on that news because it's the opposite of what people wanted or thought was going to happen."},"performance":{"entryPrice":63339,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":2.98868,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_848fc95c5732efd34a","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_848fc95c5732efd34a","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Bitcoin is heading for new lows with sellers piling in, and there's no buying it until the low 50s, maybe even 40.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2792718656?t=2375s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2792718656","timecode":"39:35","startMs":2375000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"this is making new, it's coming, we're coming for new lows. Increasing volume in these red candles. I, uh, I sold some Bitcoin today. Some spot Bitcoin to put into a Robinhood account."},"performance":{"entryPrice":61989,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-5.231573,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_d806b263bec52ba79f","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_d806b263bec52ba79f","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The crowd that got rich early on SpaceX pours it into robotics and frontier venture, not crypto, so don't count on that money rotating back into Bitcoin.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"notthreadguy","displayName":"Notthreadguy","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/73b599a1-a","url":"/trace/experts/notthreadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2795096489?t=2605s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2795096489","timecode":"43:25","startMs":2605000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I actually think the complete opposite is going to happen. Okay, if you put a bunch of money very early in SpaceX and you made a lot of money, you are now programmed to invest in bleeding-edge tech in venture. You're going to put the money in robotics."},"performance":{"entryPrice":63510,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-2.711384,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7dd03fda97eeba06b8","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7dd03fda97eeba06b8","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Selling company shares as crypto tokens could kill the bank IPO racket that underprices deals by a third, and that path runs straight through blockchain rails.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3rrGzTDH4k&t=1843s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=o3rrGzTDH4k","timecode":"30:43","startMs":1843000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"There's a really interesting post by Hester Peirce... this post called A Creative and Cooperative Balancing Act argues that maybe blockchain is the path to fix the IPO market, which is provocative."},"performance":{"entryPrice":110373,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-40.898589,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_1c996a9f67d94fab60","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_1c996a9f67d94fab60","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Buy a nickel of Bitcoin early and you did really well, and that is exactly why fast-growing tech is the opportunity for people with barely any money, not the rich.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ID27juNvAfc&t=1054s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=ID27juNvAfc","timecode":"17:34","startMs":1054000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"We saw that with crypto. So many people who made money on crypto were like people who you know, literally didn't have much to start with. They just got into the technology early, and then they kind of parlayed it up."},"performance":{"entryPrice":78277,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-16.665176,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_d61c7cc226ab561aee","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_d61c7cc226ab561aee","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Bitcoin beats gold as protection against money printing because its supply is truly fixed, though a cyber war or quantum computing could one day break that armor.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"paul-tudor-jones","displayName":"Paul Tudor Jones","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/efab0dff-9","url":"/trace/experts/paul-tudor-jones","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S31J5ACsOqU&t=1948s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=S31J5ACsOqU","timecode":"32:28","startMs":1948000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"If I think about big shots, just Bitcoin 2020, a knockout. 2-year rates 2022, knockout."},"performance":{"entryPrice":76233,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-14.430758,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_1bddf05c7595878e7b","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_1bddf05c7595878e7b","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Owning zero Bitcoin on purpose, the AI trade has crushed crypto for two years and this backdrop with quantum overhang just doesn't excite me.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"blknoiz06","displayName":"Ansem","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/670af20d-6","url":"/trace/experts/blknoiz06","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2760932521?t=2828s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2760932521","timecode":"47:08","startMs":2828000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I own zero Bitcoin. I do think it's, it's down a lot, and I do think it's like not a great place to be selling if you do have some. But I just think that, yeah, like you said, the AI trade has been a much better trade the past couple of years compared to crypto."},"performance":{"entryPrice":76461,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":14.685918,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_56c1335682144d60b2","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_56c1335682144d60b2","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Holding a fuck ton of Bitcoin and not selling, overinvested in crypto for two years even as stocks crushed it, still bullish.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"banks","displayName":"Faze Banks","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/36037eff-5","url":"/trace/experts/banks","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2766528096?t=3155s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2766528096","timecode":"52:35","startMs":3155000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I own a fuck ton of Bitcoin, I own a fuck ton of Hyperliquid... I'm still bullish. I'm not selling them."},"performance":{"entryPrice":79843,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-18.299663,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_9dddce67eb1ddf4246","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_9dddce67eb1ddf4246","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"The crypto majors are done outperforming, Nvidia 7x'd off its 2021 high while Bitcoin sits flat, and that gap is not closing.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"blknoiz06","displayName":"Ansem","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/670af20d-6","url":"/trace/experts/blknoiz06","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2772016731?t=4307s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2772016731","timecode":"71:47","startMs":4307000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"this is the best side-by-side comparison I can do to show like how AI has just outperformed crypto so much. I think if you look, Bitcoin's all-time high in 2021 was $69K. Nvidia's all-time high in late 2021 was literally $40, and now it's at $235. So it's like 7x from that high."},"performance":{"entryPrice":81274,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":19.73817,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_c97ae2b107ec73487a","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_c97ae2b107ec73487a","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Bitcoin just broke out of its range and is holding the line near 79K, set to grind higher with the raging stock market as long as it stays above 75K.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"blknoiz06","displayName":"Ansem","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/670af20d-6","url":"/trace/experts/blknoiz06","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2772016731?t=4093s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2772016731","timecode":"68:13","startMs":4093000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I do think Bitcoin is in a great spot right now technically. I think it's holding this key level, which is like $79K."},"performance":{"entryPrice":81274,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-19.73817,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_4c4a4d96ebf425ff7c","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_4c4a4d96ebf425ff7c","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Bitcoin looks weak, it failed to hold the seventy nine thousand level that matters, and until it reclaims that it stays flat and uninspiring.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"blknoiz06","displayName":"Ansem","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/670af20d-6","url":"/trace/experts/blknoiz06","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2777595863?t=2633s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2777595863","timecode":"43:53","startMs":2633000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"this range high around like $79K is really important. It hasn't held it, which is kind of bad. I want to see it get back above this level for it to be bullish. So I'm really not bullish Bitcoin or ETH right now."},"performance":{"entryPrice":77659,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":16.002009,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_eb4fa3f32792903b0c","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_eb4fa3f32792903b0c","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Bitcoin's weakness keeps going because MicroStrategy now owes 12% dividends on new preferred shares and may have to dump Bitcoin to pay it, while ETFs bled $4 billion in two weeks.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"blknoiz06","displayName":"Ansem","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/670af20d-6","url":"/trace/experts/blknoiz06","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2788673017?t=2496s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2788673017","timecode":"41:36","startMs":2496000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I think Bitcoin's weakness is going to continue, honestly. Um, a lot of the weakness this past month has been people's concerns with Saylor."},"performance":{"entryPrice":63520,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-2.695214,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_7c01dbf2164265a9ba","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7c01dbf2164265a9ba","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Bitcoin still looks lower on the long time frame, holding the bearish call on the biggest coin.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"blknoiz06","displayName":"Ansem","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/670af20d-6","url":"/trace/experts/blknoiz06","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2794322013?t=3620s","sourceUrl":"https://twitch.tv/videos/2794322013","timecode":"60:20","startMs":3620000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I still am bearish major. I'm still, uh, high time frame bearish, uh, Bitcoin, ETH, and SOL."},"performance":{"entryPrice":63382,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-2.91881,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_8144ee79d84f658397","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_8144ee79d84f658397","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"GDP-on-blockchain push and commercial space commerce reorg signal real-economy data and satellite tailwinds.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fd6QaEJOjvI&t=690s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=fd6QaEJOjvI","timecode":"11:30","startMs":690000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"And then we put GDP out on the blockchain, because if I'm publishing GDP, why not?"},"performance":{"entryPrice":91039,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-28.347192,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_06c85134591d058dd2","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_06c85134591d058dd2","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Best-performing asset of the decade plus a pro-crypto administration repatriating capital into the US","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=-yrLEKjMyrM&t=150s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=-yrLEKjMyrM","timecode":"2:30","startMs":150000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"he campaigned on this idea of making the United States the crypto capital of the world. He's kept his promises. He's leaned in and tried to get clear rules"},"performance":{"entryPrice":89458,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-27.080865,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_cd6137f5c5e11f9735","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_cd6137f5c5e11f9735","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Falling rates lower the opportunity cost of holding crypto dollars, which historically drove stablecoin circulation and crypto velocity up","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=w2BqPnVKVo4&t=1441s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=w2BqPnVKVo4","timecode":"24:01","startMs":1441000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"when interest rates were actually very low, uh we saw 1000% year over year growth two years straight"},"performance":{"entryPrice":89268,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":-26.925662,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_f25263fcbc09d42ad1","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_f25263fcbc09d42ad1","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Dalio rejects the digital-gold thesis: Bitcoin lacks privacy, central banks won't hold it, and it trades like a high-beta tech stock rather than a safe haven, so it loses the money race to gold. The stake is that Bitcoin keeps underperforming gold and behaving as a risk asset.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"BTC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=u-vMNzHgSHI&t=1253s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=u-vMNzHgSHI","timecode":"20:53","startMs":1253000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"In the same period that gold's climbed 80% since we last talked, Bitcoin's down 25%... Bitcoin does not have privacy... Central banks are not going to want to buy Bitcoin... It tends to have a a pretty high correlation with the tech stocks... as a money, you know, it's small in relationship to gold... There is only one gold."},"performance":{"entryPrice":66845,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":2.413045,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_e895b876c06e9b9d4d","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_e895b876c06e9b9d4d","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"EXPLICIT_SELL","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"decision possible, which was selling just a little bit of BTC because he did","confidence":0.78,"expert":{"slug":"threadguy","displayName":"ThreadGuy","kind":"UNKNOWN","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":null,"url":"/trace/experts/threadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"Bitcoin","exchange":null,"confidence":0.9},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp6GP4MspAg&t=615","sourceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qp6GP4MspAg","timecode":"10:15","startMs":615120,"endMs":619710,"excerpt":"decision possible, which was selling decision possible, which was selling just a little bit of BTC because he did just a little bit of BTC because he did"},"performance":{"entryPrice":null,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":null}},{"id":"mcl_7f0ef604d772302b61","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_7f0ef604d772302b61","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"EXPLICIT_SELL","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"I sold some Bitcoin today, some spot bitcoin to","confidence":0.78,"expert":{"slug":"threadguy","displayName":"ThreadGuy","kind":"UNKNOWN","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":null,"url":"/trace/experts/threadguy","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"CRYPTO","symbol":"BTC","name":"Bitcoin","exchange":null,"confidence":0.9},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ydPj9pJcqY&t=557","sourceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ydPj9pJcqY","timecode":"9:17","startMs":557040,"endMs":559590,"excerpt":"mark out as a buy level on this. I sold mark out as a buy level on this. I sold some Bitcoin today, some spot bitcoin to some Bitcoin today, some spot bitcoin to"},"performance":{"entryPrice":null,"currentPrice":65232,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":null}}]}