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And so I was trying to square this question of distillation and model commoditization with the news that Anthropic has reached $30 billion in run rate."},"performance":{"entryPrice":697.95,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_3e4a63f276a9e7c83b","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_3e4a63f276a9e7c83b","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Anthropic's implied valuation keeps ratcheting up as the best model sells out faster than compute can serve it, with revenue and margins outrunning the infrastructure squeeze beneath it.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"tbpn","displayName":"TBPN","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/f01e70d9-d","url":"/trace/experts/tbpn","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGtgqm6JHaM&t=1417s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=TGtgqm6JHaM","timecode":"23:37","startMs":1417000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"The tier 1 lab will have better margins, but the tier 2 lab will be sold out, and probably the tier 3 lab will also be close to sold out. 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And so this gap will continue to grow, and the model labs will continue to have expanding margins until people in the hardware supply chain, infrastructure supply chain, are like, wait, no, why don't I just jack up my margins?"},"performance":{"entryPrice":1097,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_fa06a6f1fb814bbeb4","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_fa06a6f1fb814bbeb4","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Anthropic's valuation leans almost entirely on pay-per-token API revenue, and once routing makes models swappable that pricing power thins out, leaving a near-trillion mark with no room for error.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"seanhenry","displayName":"Sean Henry","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/a615bcc2-6","url":"/trace/experts/seanhenry","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3zeIQcJtB0&t=8135s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=U3zeIQcJtB0","timecode":"135:35","startMs":8135000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Where are the best use cases? 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But as many people have pointed out, it's also just good business. You don't want competitors using your products to directly create competitors."},"performance":{"entryPrice":1700,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_5e84a4a50eeb3321af","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_5e84a4a50eeb3321af","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Code generation is the first AI use case with real money behind it, Anthropic went from 200 million to over 4 billion in revenue in a single year, growth never seen in business software.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"martin-escobari","displayName":"Martin Escobari","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":null,"url":"/trace/experts/martin-escobari","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a34VyGpf8s4&t=875s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=a34VyGpf8s4","timecode":"14:35","startMs":875000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"as soon as we see a use case with real ROI, and real revenue to the provider of the service, and you can sort of model what the economics... then we pounce."},"performance":{"entryPrice":333.96,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_f4a41a62b319cae5fe","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_f4a41a62b319cae5fe","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Claude's maker is burning far less cash than its bigger rival yet growing faster, thanks to cheap-chip deals with Google and Amazon.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"investlikebest","displayName":"Invest Like the Best","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/75a94db5-5","url":"/trace/experts/investlikebest","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmUo4841KQw&t=3038s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=cmUo4841KQw","timecode":"50:38","startMs":3038000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Anthropic is a good company. 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Right. So, you know, in 2023 it was like $0 to $100 million. 2024, it was $100 million to $1 billion. 2025, it was $1 billion to like $9 or $10 billion."},"performance":{"entryPrice":535.11,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_5d2dfad0725e4665e0","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_5d2dfad0725e4665e0","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Anthropic's implied valuation keeps climbing as cheap-by-the-token inference unlocks workloads nobody could afford before and pay-per-token revenue compounds 10x a year off a still-early base.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"dwarkesh-sp","displayName":"Dwarkesh Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c3263695-7","url":"/trace/experts/dwarkesh-sp","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBPOTklFTiU&t=318s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=KBPOTklFTiU","timecode":"5:18","startMs":318000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"while this year might cost $30 billion, next year it'll cost $3 billion, the year after that $300 million, and by 2030 it'll be less expensive to monitor every single nook and cranny in this country than it is to remodel the White House."},"performance":{"entryPrice":628.19,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_32160708967e75a75c","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_32160708967e75a75c","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Anthropic's valuation rests on capability being scarce; when open weights match the frontier within a year, the premium that justifies a $380B mark has nothing left to defend.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"dwarkesh-sp","displayName":"Dwarkesh Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c3263695-7","url":"/trace/experts/dwarkesh-sp","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBPOTklFTiU&t=405s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=KBPOTklFTiU","timecode":"6:45","startMs":405000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"by late 2027, or certainly by 2028, there's going to be such wide diffusion that even open source models will be able to match the performance that the frontier had 12 months prior."},"performance":{"entryPrice":628.19,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_43966b7addf3b32525","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_43966b7addf3b32525","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Model makers raise prices and ration usage this year because they are so short of compute they literally have to choke off demand to keep up.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"dwarkesh-sp","displayName":"Dwarkesh Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/c3263695-7","url":"/trace/experts/dwarkesh-sp","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDG_Hx3BSUE&t=1477s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=mDG_Hx3BSUE","timecode":"24:37","startMs":1477000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I think at least this year we're going to see margins for the model vendors go up a lot, right? 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And the models are better, the applications are better, but they're doing it with less"},"performance":{"entryPrice":497,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_5f323258f723e8a15d","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_5f323258f723e8a15d","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Sacks singles out Anthropic's Opus 4.5 and Claude Code as the breakout product everyone is going crazy over and projects it becomes the personal digital assistant in 2026, a named bet that Anthropic specifically is on the leading edge.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=NyP-euljCHM&t=1159s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=NyP-euljCHM","timecode":"19:19","startMs":1159000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"the the the product that just came out recently that everyone's kind of going crazy over is the latest iteration of Claude Code, uh, which is, uh, powered by, uh, Anthropic's, uh, Opus 4.5 model, which seems to be a real breakthrough in in in coding... in 2026, you could see that that these types of of tools, again, started as coding assistance, but now they've become personal digital assistance. That could definitely happen this year."},"performance":{"entryPrice":533.29,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_b7c309e5b5a3cdb355","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_b7c309e5b5a3cdb355","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Chamath argues Anthropic's last mark understates it versus OpenAI on both revenue ramp and product pull, with co-work adoption as the live demand signal. A panelist on the same thread put fair value at 1.5 trillion, far above the 350 billion mark.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"chamath","displayName":"Chamath Palihapitiya","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/98f72714-d","url":"/trace/experts/chamath","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=gzwRflcLPAA&t=3853s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=gzwRflcLPAA","timecode":"1:04:13","startMs":3853000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I it's undervalued compared to chat GPT. They just added 6 billion in the last month. And I will tell you anecdotally... everyone I talk to is on co-work... Anthropic may actually be fulfilling the promise of AI."},"performance":{"entryPrice":660,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_5652b7cc02d2171ce2","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_5652b7cc02d2171ce2","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Gerstner picks Anthropic at a $380B mark over OpenAI at $840B and says he keeps adding, framing the $6B February revenue month as proof the model is augmenting labor budgets rather than IT budgets. He expects both names to IPO in 2026, which converts the private mark into a tradeable equity.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"altcap","displayName":"Brad Gerstner","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/746364e2-3","url":"/trace/experts/altcap","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HiVej9_fvl8&t=1724s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=HiVej9_fvl8","timecode":"28:44","startMs":1724000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Anthropic unquestionably has a lot of financial momentum... I bought a lot more since then, Jason. I bought a lot more since then."},"performance":{"entryPrice":648.71,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_f1871d8f4568849b03","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_f1871d8f4568849b03","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Sacks concedes Anthropic owns the best coding assistant and a lucrative enterprise lane even while disliking their strategy, and the open quote that Anthropic is beating OpenAI in enterprise revenue frames the same direction. The bet is on enterprise stickiness translating to a rising private valuation.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=9y7TTU1jIvk&t=489s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=9y7TTU1jIvk","timecode":"8:09","startMs":489000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I have to acknowledge their products are very good. Everybody seems to say that they have the best coding assistant and they're carving out a very lucrative niche in enterprise."},"performance":{"entryPrice":618,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_42be9c91ca209198d7","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_42be9c91ca209198d7","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Jensen says Dario's trillion-by-2030 is conservative; every enterprise app becomes an Anthropic reseller","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=gwW8GKwHB3I&t=3361s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=gwW8GKwHB3I","timecode":"56:01","startMs":3361000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Dario on Dkesh's podcast recently said by 2027, 28, we'll have hundreds of billions of dollars of revenue out of the model companies and the agent companies, and he forecast a trillion dollars by 2030"},"performance":{"entryPrice":593.4,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_6a339dbae28f625c20","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_6a339dbae28f625c20","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Opus 4.5 was the inflection point for agentic orchestration; Claude Code seeded the whole sandbox paradigm","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=-JBhTBu9ZbA&t=2921s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=-JBhTBu9ZbA","timecode":"48:41","startMs":2921000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Dario uh CEO of Anthropic said recently in an interview uh that models are specializing... Even within coding, uh Claude Code and Codex have very different capabilities."},"performance":{"entryPrice":589,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_d55289416c5318f3b3","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_d55289416c5318f3b3","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Gerstner walks through Anthropic adding Databricks-plus-Palantir of revenue in a single month and hitting its $30B exit target by March, then stakes a doubling-to-tripling to $80-100B by year end. The implied path is a much higher valuation than the $380B last round.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"altcap","displayName":"Brad Gerstner","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/746364e2-3","url":"/trace/experts/altcap","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=DVBJQQCjgXU&t=2899s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=DVBJQQCjgXU","timecode":"48:19","startMs":2899000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I would not be shocked if you see Anthropic exiting this year at $80 to $100 billion in revenue."},"performance":{"entryPrice":850.01,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_0199711601500f8e11","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_0199711601500f8e11","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"The panel calls the flippening: Anthropic compounds revenue ~10x a year versus OpenAI's 3-4x off the same ~$30B base, and the lead from enterprise coding usage may become insurmountable. Long the Anthropic implied-valuation perp expresses that the relative re-rating keeps running.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=SFdqX7IY7RY&t=1424s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=SFdqX7IY7RY","timecode":"23:44","startMs":1424000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"if it's taking Anthropic, let's say one year to 10 X and it's taking Open AI two years to achieve a 10 X, then it's obvious which one's going to win... if they don't catch up soon to Travis's point, then you could see Anthropic taking a lead here that let's say over the next one or two years could be insurmountable."},"performance":{"entryPrice":1067.4,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_ca22cb55b5672aba04","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_ca22cb55b5672aba04","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"On Hyperliquid the ANTHROPIC perp prices the implied private valuation in billions, so a long is the direct way to express Chamath's call that Anthropic ends up worth multiple trillions. He says it in the same breath as his identical OpenAI call, which was posted as vntl:OPENAI, so the parallel stake routes to the same synthetic-valuation contract.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"chamath","displayName":"Chamath Palihapitiya","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/98f72714-d","url":"/trace/experts/chamath","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=fpC4sbawSzQ&t=509s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=fpC4sbawSzQ","timecode":"8:29","startMs":509000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"I think they're going to be fine. I think this is a multi-trillion dollar company. I think Anthropic is a multi-trillion dollar company."},"performance":{"entryPrice":1148.9,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_b6e0b774520ad3293f","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_b6e0b774520ad3293f","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Sacks argues Anthropic is on a clean 10X-a-year exponential that compute deals have now unblocked, so its private valuation only goes one way from here. The pre-IPO synthetic is the one tracked instrument that captures that staked value-up call.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=10MdOvK-aG4&t=849s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=10MdOvK-aG4","timecode":"14:09","startMs":849000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"they grew from roughly 10 billion of ARR to 30 billion, so it tripled. And then in April... They went from 30 to 44 billion of ARR... I think it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that they will hit that forecast of 10X this year, exiting the year at call it roughly 100 billion of ARR... unless something about their current trajectory changes, Anthropic will be the most powerful monopoly ever created in human history."},"performance":{"entryPrice":1063.7,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_ee1d8b003c65bb144c","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_ee1d8b003c65bb144c","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Benioff stakes that Anthropic's coding-agent bet was the right one while rivals chased video and companions, and is backing it with $300M of his own spend this year. The vntl perp prices Anthropic's implied private valuation directly.","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"benioff","displayName":"Mark Benioff","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/4d11cad4-9","url":"/trace/experts/benioff","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=jJRAvZNGUvI&t=2395s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=jJRAvZNGUvI","timecode":"39:55","startMs":2395000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"have you seen Anthropic? I mean, it is a rocket ship that will not stop because you can use this product to do these incredible, amazing things."},"performance":{"entryPrice":1097.9,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_ec0e95edbf40dd4f9d","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_ec0e95edbf40dd4f9d","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Anthropic achieving EBIT-positive status at scale with 80%+ gross margins on inference proves the AI profitability debate is settled — the narrative has moved from \"will anyone make money?\" to \"how big does this get?\"","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HGbA6ze0_3M&t=275s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=HGbA6ze0_3M","timecode":"4:35","startMs":275000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"they were EBIT positive per The Wall Street Journal... returns are there"},"performance":{"entryPrice":1374.1,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_a2f3c4ab3d3aef8dee","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_a2f3c4ab3d3aef8dee","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"LONG","claimText":"Anthropic compounding at 10x vs OpenAI 3x means 90% share in two years if it holds; Claude crushing on product","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=4oq91rzQcO8%26t%3D2355s&t=2951s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=4oq91rzQcO8%26t%3D2355s","timecode":"49:11","startMs":2951000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Claude is really good at product. Like Claude for Excel is better than co-pilot by not by a little, by a lot."},"performance":{"entryPrice":1418.1,"currentPrice":null,"returnPct":null,"relativePct":null,"method":"PASTE_AUTHOR_PRICE"}},{"id":"mcl_24f3df13f2f85b857f","url":"/trace/claims/mcl_24f3df13f2f85b857f","status":"PUBLISHED","claimType":"DIRECTIONAL_THESIS","direction":"SHORT","claimText":"Most-funded lab is also the loudest doomer; regulatory-capture or 'midwife a deity' motive looms over the IPO","confidence":0.72,"expert":{"slug":"allin","displayName":"All-In Podcast","kind":"PERSON","status":"UNCLAIMED","avatarUrl":"/api/avatars/acfd1290-a","url":"/trace/experts/allin","claimed":false},"primaryEntity":{"kind":"ASSET","assetClass":"EQUITY","symbol":"ANTHROPIC","name":"ANTHROPIC","exchange":null,"confidence":0.78},"evidence":{"evidenceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=4oq91rzQcO8%26t%3D2355s&t=1614s","sourceUrl":"https://youtube.com/watch?v=4oq91rzQcO8%26t%3D2355s","timecode":"26:54","startMs":1614000,"endMs":null,"excerpt":"Anthropic is a mystery to me. 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